Sunday, May 18, 2008

Marlins Against Odds Today

Last night's win was terrific, but will it lead to a new streak? The laws of probability aren't kind today, but who are we to listen to that? Didn't probability also predict the Marlins to finish with sub-70 wins?

As a responsible blogger, however (am I really?), I have to report the bad news. The Fish are facing one tough cookie in Zack Greinke. This week's edition of Endinson Volquez, let's examine his stats:

4-1, 1.93 ERA, 38-14 K-BB ratio. Compare those superb statistics with Burke Badenhop (I won't even bother to show his numbers), and you start to get a "sinking" feeling.

The Marlins also have a 4-4 record in day games, a couple of which they pulled out by the skin of their teeth. They've been more effective at night.

Okay, now for some optimism. Greinke hasn't been quite as good of late. He's 1-1 with a 3.15 ERA in his last three games, while Badenhop is 1-0, 4.08 ERA over the same stretch. The Marlins have a better offense, especially with Jacobs back, and they're at home.

The Marlins can definitely take this one, but it will take a strong performance from Badenhop and company.

No comments: