Friday, May 30, 2008

HR Derby: Marlins-Phillies

The over-under on homers hit this weekend in the Marlins-Phillies series has got to be at least 12. That's right...2 for each team in each game, and I'm probably taking the over. Here are the current totals for team HRs:

Philadelphia, 79
Florida, 76
Chicago WS, 63
Texas, 63
Cincinnati, 60

Let's examine those numbers a bit. The Phillies and Marlins are worlds above the rest of the league when it comes to this department, and all three games will be in the bandbox known as Citizens Bank Park.

I've done a close inspection of the numbers, however, and I have to give the Phillies some credit. The home-road disparity isn't as great as you'd think. Of the 79 HRs they've hit, 42 were at home (37 on the road). They've allowed only 51 HRs, with an almost even split of 26 at home and 25 on the road. Of course, they haven't faced the Marlins offense yet.

Technically, the Marlins hit 1.462 HRs a game, the Phillies 1.436. I'm still setting the over-under at 2 a game for each team. Who's joining me and taking the over?


Paul said...

Well we better hope for over 12 HRs, as the Marlins have shown a somewhat alarmning dependence on the long ball this year. And I'd be happy to write a post about the game I attend, which will likely be the Sunday afternoon game. Should be a great afternoon for a ballgame, with partly sunny skies and a high of 76 (try not to get to jealous down in FL).

ASponge said...

Thanks Paul. Send us an e-mail at and we'll set you up.

libertyball said...

I'm definitely with you on the over. My Phillies have been absolutely killing the ball, and scoring runs like mad. Just ask the Rockies what it's like. Ryan Howard finally got his head out of his...and is now actually hitting the ball. The whole lineup is producing pretty well right now. And our starting pitching (Brett Myers) is known to give up homers.