Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Lottery Details, Expectations

After reviewing the ins and outs of the NBA lottery process, it seems to make as much sense as another game involving ping pong balls: beer pong. Of course, nothing really registers when you play beer pong, so maybe that's a step up.

Let me make it simple for you. Here are the Heat's probabilities:

1st pick: 25%
2nd pick: 21.46%
3rd pick: 17.72%
4th pick: 35.82%

So yes, you read that correctly. Despite having the worst record, the Heat have (yes, I insist on plural) the highest probability of getting the 4th pick.

According to custom, they'll reveal each team's picks going down from 14 to 1. Here's your trusty pick-to-pick guide for how to react:

4th pick:
A. Miami is called. Go throw your champagne bottle at the wall, then clean it up next week.
B. Another team. Take a big sigh of relief. The probabilities shift to: 1st pick 38.95%; 2nd pick 33.44%; 3rd pick 27.61%

3rd pick:
A. Miami is called. Utter some profanities at the TV, then put your champagne back on the rocks.
B. Another team. Jump up and down! New probabilities: 1st pick 53.81%; 2nd pick 46.19%

2nd pick:
A. Miami is called. Pop open the champagne and sip it lightly. One of Derrick Rose or Michael Beasley will be coming to Miami, unless the Heat get something better in a trade.
B. Another team. Blow off that cork and party like it's June, 2006! Ugh...that seems so long ago.

So there you have it. Now go find that lucky Keith Askins jersey.

1 comment:

The Dude said...

#2 pick! I'm happy. I think it's BS that a team with 1.7% chance gets the No. 1 but whatev.... I'll take the No. 2 pick.

Beaseley or Rose will be a Miami Heat. My bet is on Rose since Chicago already has plenty of guards. And that's more than alright by me!