Lottery Details, Expectations

After reviewing the ins and outs of the NBA lottery process, it seems to make as much sense as another game involving ping pong balls: beer pong. Of course, nothing really registers when you play beer pong, so maybe that's a step up.

Let me make it simple for you. Here are the Heat's probabilities:

1st pick: 25%
2nd pick: 21.46%
3rd pick: 17.72%
4th pick: 35.82%

So yes, you read that correctly. Despite having the worst record, the Heat have (yes, I insist on plural) the highest probability of getting the 4th pick.

According to custom, they'll reveal each team's picks going down from 14 to 1. Here's your trusty pick-to-pick guide for how to react:

4th pick:
A. Miami is called. Go throw your champagne bottle at the wall, then clean it up next week.
B. Another team. Take a big sigh of relief. The probabilities shift to: 1st pick 38.95%; 2nd pick 33.44%; 3rd pick 27.61%

3rd pick:
A. Miami is called. Utter some profanities at the TV, then put your champagne back on the rocks.
B. Another team. Jump up and down! New probabilities: 1st pick 53.81%; 2nd pick 46.19%

2nd pick:
A. Miami is called. Pop open the champagne and sip it lightly. One of Derrick Rose or Michael Beasley will be coming to Miami, unless the Heat get something better in a trade.
B. Another team. Blow off that cork and party like it's June, 2006! Ugh...that seems so long ago.

So there you have it. Now go find that lucky Keith Askins jersey.