Commence The Mike Jacobs Free-For-All

The start by the Marlins to the ‘08 season should be savored. The Fish are in first-place, but the success needs to be met with tempered enthusiasm. The team has a -14 run differential, and still has to compete with the supremely talented Mets, Braves, and Phillies. That said, it’s not uncommon to play winning baseball with some smoke, mirrors, and the fortuitous injury to a division foe’s ace or star bat.

And, being the optimist that I wish I was, the team is stacked with a deep crop of arms down on the farm, a high 1st round pick this year, a potential star in Cameron Maybin, and a group of young assets already on the 40-man roster.

And there is a group of players who will become expendable come July and in December: The arbitration-eligibles and the upcoming free agents.

• Kevin Gregg
• Luis Gonzalez
• Mark Hendrickson
• Sergio Mitre
• Alfredo Amezega
• Justin Miller
• Jorge Cantu
• Hanley Ramírez
• Dan Uggla
• Dallas McPherson
• Scott Olsen
• Josh Willingham
• Jeremy Hermida
• Mike Jacobs

Ramírez, Uggla, McPherson, Olsen, Hermida, and Jacobs will all be entering their first year of arbitration, so even Hanley, Uggla, and Hermida will be cheap enough to be members of the ’09 Marlins. The rest will certainly be cheap enough to keep, too; but should they be moved? The name that jumps out to me is Mike Jacobs. Jacobs, Pedro’s former BFF, along with the late Nelson de la Rosa (RIP), is off to a hot start. He’s batting .298, .951 OPS, and 5 HRs in only 47 ABs. Any statistical argument at this point is premature due to the small sample size. But if he can keep up this hot start, his value come late June or July may be at its highest. This is because Jacobs is a very flawed player, overall.

First, the reasons why he may appear to some GMs as a valuable pickup would be his age (27), his power (53 career HRs in only 1042 ABs), and his handedness (lefty hitting). The key reason, though, is his contract. Arbitration eligible next year, Jacobs will likely earn $1.25MM-$2.00MM in 2009 depending on his 2008 season.

It's simply too much for a player on the Marlins with the holes in his swing that Jacobs has. His swing is long, and the evidence backs it up. Jacobs’ power is entirely fastball power; he hits an abysmal .063 against LHP curveballs, and .129 against sliders from lefties. And the scariest part is how much he hedges on the fastball, cheating his swing. His swing rate on 2-0 counts is 52%, which is much higher than the average player. For reference, even Adam Dunn, one of the premier fastball sluggers, swings 38% of the time on 2-0 counts; and Andruw Jones, who has been cheating on fastballs for the bulk of his career, is at 42%.

Jacobs certainly makes sense for the Marlins this year; he’s cheap ($395,000), mostly, but should produce another 100 OPS+ season and play serviceable defense. Hopefully Michael Hill will strike, though, while the perceived value of Jacobs remains high.