Hanley Good to Go

For those of you concerned about Hanley's sore shoulder, be at ease. He's good to go tonight in the All-Star game, where he'll be leading off the game.

Considering how understated the injuries were to Sergio Mitre, Josh Willingham, Mike Jacobs, and Dan Uggla, I feared the worst. Day-to-day from the Marlins has become a synonym for week-to-week or month-to-month. Is Mitre even going to pitch this year?

I'm so excited for Hanley...let's hope he represents well!

At 50-45, It's an Excellent First Half

The Marlins go into the All-Star break at 50-45, 1.5 out of first and in third place. It hurts to fall behind the Mets...it hurts a lot, but it's only by a game. With a restored rotation and the team regaining some confidence, this should shape up for a strong three-horse race to the finish (and don't discount the Braves either).

Still, let's be practical. Did anyone expect this? Most Marlins fans would have taken 45-50 and a bag of sour peanuts, let alone 50-45. The Marlins are skeptic-defying contenders, establishing reputations and instilling legitimate fear leaguewide. All in all, the Marlins deserve a nice pat on the back.

Let's look at some facts:

1. The Marlins started the year 30-20. They then endured a 14-23 stretch, before closing at 6-2.

2. As you all know, they lead the league in home runs.

3. This was all accomplished with Josh Willingham out for two months, Josh Johnson making one start, and Sergio Mitre and Annibal Sanchez still on the DL.

4. Hanley Ramirez was locked up for six years.

5. Dan Uggla is now a household name.

6. In what appeared to be a dismal spring battle at 3B, Jorge Cantu has thrived, Dallas McPherson has 30+ HRs in AAA, and Jose Castillo helped drag the Giants to the bottom of the league.

Yes, things have been good.

So Who's For Real?

East is east, and west is west,
So which one of our teams is really the best?

As we wake up this Monday morning, the Marlins have the best record in all of major league baseball, at 23-14, and are riding a 7-game winning streak. The Rays have the third best record in the American League, at 21-16, and are riding a 4-game winning streak. Both teams are greatly exceeding any forecaster's wildest predictions, and yet neither team is really taken very seriously for the long haul, especially when it comes to the Marlins.

The point was driven home during my doubles tennis game yesterday morning. In response to my comment about the recent success of our team, my opponent, a diehard Yankee fan from Scarsdale, calmly remarked, "They're playing well for a weak team." Perhaps he should have referred to the payroll, not the quality. A more appropriate comment might have been, "They're playing well for a poor team." Looking at the inflated payroll of both New York teams, it is hard not to cringe. But even that is about to change somewhat with the long term 70-million dollar contract soon to be signed by Hanley Ramirez.

Then, in listening to ESPN radio last night, the discussion revolved around these two Florida over-performing teams, with the consensus being that the Rays were the more likely team to prevail over for the duration of the season, with the Marlins the more likely team to collapse. After all, the Marlins have been winning on scoring runs and power, while the Rays have the stronger pitching with Kazmir back in form and a better team ERA overall.

I predict exactly the opposite. The Marlins pitching will only improve, with Miller and Badenhop showing signs of belonging above triple A, Mitre and Sanchez on the mend, and a strong corps of relievers and closers. The lineup is also likely to strengthen, with Willingham and Jacobs due to return any day now. History favors the Marlins as well, need I say more?

There may be a ray of hope for Tampa Bay, but, at least in the mind of this reporter, the Marlins are the big fish in Florida.

Commence The Mike Jacobs Free-For-All

The start by the Marlins to the ‘08 season should be savored. The Fish are in first-place, but the success needs to be met with tempered enthusiasm. The team has a -14 run differential, and still has to compete with the supremely talented Mets, Braves, and Phillies. That said, it’s not uncommon to play winning baseball with some smoke, mirrors, and the fortuitous injury to a division foe’s ace or star bat.

And, being the optimist that I wish I was, the team is stacked with a deep crop of arms down on the farm, a high 1st round pick this year, a potential star in Cameron Maybin, and a group of young assets already on the 40-man roster.

And there is a group of players who will become expendable come July and in December: The arbitration-eligibles and the upcoming free agents.

• Kevin Gregg
• Luis Gonzalez
• Mark Hendrickson
• Sergio Mitre
• Alfredo Amezega
• Justin Miller
• Jorge Cantu
• Hanley Ramírez
• Dan Uggla
• Dallas McPherson
• Scott Olsen
• Josh Willingham
• Jeremy Hermida
• Mike Jacobs

Ramírez, Uggla, McPherson, Olsen, Hermida, and Jacobs will all be entering their first year of arbitration, so even Hanley, Uggla, and Hermida will be cheap enough to be members of the ’09 Marlins. The rest will certainly be cheap enough to keep, too; but should they be moved? The name that jumps out to me is Mike Jacobs. Jacobs, Pedro’s former BFF, along with the late Nelson de la Rosa (RIP), is off to a hot start. He’s batting .298, .951 OPS, and 5 HRs in only 47 ABs. Any statistical argument at this point is premature due to the small sample size. But if he can keep up this hot start, his value come late June or July may be at its highest. This is because Jacobs is a very flawed player, overall.

First, the reasons why he may appear to some GMs as a valuable pickup would be his age (27), his power (53 career HRs in only 1042 ABs), and his handedness (lefty hitting). The key reason, though, is his contract. Arbitration eligible next year, Jacobs will likely earn $1.25MM-$2.00MM in 2009 depending on his 2008 season.

It's simply too much for a player on the Marlins with the holes in his swing that Jacobs has. His swing is long, and the evidence backs it up. Jacobs’ power is entirely fastball power; he hits an abysmal .063 against LHP curveballs, and .129 against sliders from lefties. And the scariest part is how much he hedges on the fastball, cheating his swing. His swing rate on 2-0 counts is 52%, which is much higher than the average player. For reference, even Adam Dunn, one of the premier fastball sluggers, swings 38% of the time on 2-0 counts; and Andruw Jones, who has been cheating on fastballs for the bulk of his career, is at 42%.

Jacobs certainly makes sense for the Marlins this year; he’s cheap ($395,000), mostly, but should produce another 100 OPS+ season and play serviceable defense. Hopefully Michael Hill will strike, though, while the perceived value of Jacobs remains high.

Marlins Reveal Opening Day Starter

After weeks of debate, Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez announced that newly-acquired veteran pitcher Mark Hendrickson would get the nod to start on opening day, Monday, March 31st against the New York Mets. This comes as no surprise, at this point, considering the fantastic spring he has had and also the injuries that have plagued the rest of the Marlins pitching staff.

If someone were to ask who the likely opening day starter for the Marlins was back in February, the answer would have been undoubtedly either Scott Olsen or Sergio Mitre. Unfortunately, Olsen and Mitre are injured with Mitre on the disabled list and likely out until June. Olsen should be back to pitch the fourth game of the season against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Marlins Have No Pitching

When I say the Marlins have no pitching, I mean it a lot more literally than you would otherwise think. It's not that they don't have good pitchers, but that they're all hurt. Let's take a look.

Josh Johnson - Tommy John surgery, might return in August

Annibal Sanchez - Arm soreness, out until the All-star break, perhaps longer

Sergio Mitre - Forearm strain, out until at least June 1st

Scott Olsen - Arm soreness, probably out until at least the second series

In 2006, the Marlins had the makings of a great young rotation, with Willis-Josh Johnson-Olsen-Nolasco-Sanchez

Now, the only one ready for opening day is Ricky Nolasco, and he hasn't pitched well since he got injured last season.

With all the talk of the Marlins needing to fill Cabrera's hole at 3B, the real question will be the pitching; namely, how the committee of Andrew Miller, Mark Hendrickson, Rick Vanden Hurk, Chris Volstad, Gaby Hernandez, Burke Badenhop, and Daniel Barone plug the holes.