Saturday, April 26, 2008

At 14-9, Who's All-Star Bound?

Riding the coattails of the newly immortalized Scott Olsen, the Marlins eeked out a 3-0 extra-inning win over Milwaukee. It was a victory in which the Marlins showed their versatility; we knew they could win the slugfests, but now we know they can take the pitchers' duels too. A truly superb win.

Olsen's magnificence got me to thinking about the All-Star game. Here's my list of potential all-stars, with a brief explanation and probability estimate:

1. Hanley Ramirez, SS - He won't be voted in as a starter, but he's destined for a spot. Probability: 90%
2. Dan Uggla, 2B - Even with his early struggles, 2B is the least competitive field. Utley's the certain starter, but Uggla should squeeze in behind. Probability: 55%
3. Josh Willingham, OF - He'll have to keep things up, but right now he stands a decent chance. Probability: 40%
4. Mike Jacobs, 1B - Too competitive a position for Big Jake, but his ridiculously hot start at least puts him in contention. Probability: 5%
5. Jorge Cantu, 3B - Chipper Jones and David Wright are locks, so Cantu would have to be good enough to earn a third spot. Probability: 2.5%

1. Scott Olsen: At 3-0, 2.06, Olsen would make the team today, but his lack of name recognition and competition still make the odds steep. Probability: 25%
2. Kevin Gregg: He'll need to rack up more saves, but the 3-0 record should help too. Probability: 20%
3. Renyel Pinto: Rarely does a non-closer make the squad, but Pinto has been brilliant enough to deserve a mention. Probability: 1%
4. Mark Hendrickson: If Olsen goes, he certainly won't. Still, at 4-1, I had to list him. Probability: .25%

Total Odds: At least two should make it, with the third a 50/50 shot.


DSponge said...

I agree with you on everything except that Jorge Cantu probability. He's a star. I'd put him at 99% to make the all-star game. Come on, give the guy some credit.

JSponge said...

I love the turnaround on Cantu. It's about time you gave him his due.

Jay Warman said...

With the outpouring of love and support that is evident for everybody's favorite Mexican-American rancher/baseball player Jorge Cantu ... I think we need to have a nickname Cantu contest.

JSponge said...

Great idea. His mascot should be the toucan...

JSponge said...

ASponge said...

Amazing...that toucan and Cantu make an exact likeness! Now if we can just find a ham-willing to ride an ore-train carrying lay-tankers across the ria-lo to the Ter-wake.