Saturday, April 26, 2008

At 14-9, Who's All-Star Bound?

Riding the coattails of the newly immortalized Scott Olsen, the Marlins eeked out a 3-0 extra-inning win over Milwaukee. It was a victory in which the Marlins showed their versatility; we knew they could win the slugfests, but now we know they can take the pitchers' duels too. A truly superb win.

Olsen's magnificence got me to thinking about the All-Star game. Here's my list of potential all-stars, with a brief explanation and probability estimate:

Hitters:
1. Hanley Ramirez, SS - He won't be voted in as a starter, but he's destined for a spot. Probability: 90%
2. Dan Uggla, 2B - Even with his early struggles, 2B is the least competitive field. Utley's the certain starter, but Uggla should squeeze in behind. Probability: 55%
3. Josh Willingham, OF - He'll have to keep things up, but right now he stands a decent chance. Probability: 40%
4. Mike Jacobs, 1B - Too competitive a position for Big Jake, but his ridiculously hot start at least puts him in contention. Probability: 5%
5. Jorge Cantu, 3B - Chipper Jones and David Wright are locks, so Cantu would have to be good enough to earn a third spot. Probability: 2.5%

Pitchers:
1. Scott Olsen: At 3-0, 2.06, Olsen would make the team today, but his lack of name recognition and competition still make the odds steep. Probability: 25%
2. Kevin Gregg: He'll need to rack up more saves, but the 3-0 record should help too. Probability: 20%
3. Renyel Pinto: Rarely does a non-closer make the squad, but Pinto has been brilliant enough to deserve a mention. Probability: 1%
4. Mark Hendrickson: If Olsen goes, he certainly won't. Still, at 4-1, I had to list him. Probability: .25%

Total Odds: At least two should make it, with the third a 50/50 shot.

6 comments:

DSponge said...

I agree with you on everything except that Jorge Cantu probability. He's a star. I'd put him at 99% to make the all-star game. Come on, give the guy some credit.

JSponge said...

I love the turnaround on Cantu. It's about time you gave him his due.

Jay Warman said...

With the outpouring of love and support that is evident for everybody's favorite Mexican-American rancher/baseball player Jorge Cantu ... I think we need to have a nickname Cantu contest.

JSponge said...

Great idea. His mascot should be the toucan...

JSponge said...

http://www.dkimages.com/discover/previews/942/90078668.JPG

ASponge said...

Amazing...that toucan and Cantu make an exact likeness! Now if we can just find a ham-willing to ride an ore-train carrying lay-tankers across the ria-lo to the Ter-wake.