Bill Parcells is Going to Surprise Us All.

By doing absolutely nothing at all.

During the whole pre-draft you've been hearing stuff about Parcells being the "draft-guru" and the "master-of-smokescreens" and everyone seems to think that he always has some devious plan up his sleeve ready to surprise us all.

So wouldn't it be the greatest hoodwink ever if Parcells just... picked a guy, and signed him?

No smokescreens. No trades. No passing on the pick to try to get a better contract (which, by the way, was one of the stupidest ideas I've ever heard, I can't believe it gained any steam). Just pick a guy, choose what you want to sign him at, and hammer out the details with his agent.

It's that easy. No, really, it is.

I want to make it clear that I have no connections with Parcells or Jake Long. These so called "sources close to ________" are usually just random coaches or relatives who only have a vague idea of what's going on anyways. If Jake actually talked about his contract negotiations with anybody who wasn't his agent, Ireland, or Parcells, then his agent, Ireland, and Parcells would all be very, very, very mad at him. Not his parents, not Lloyd Carr, not the neighbor of this third cousin twice removed. Nobody. The fact is, no matter how much people want to put guys like Chris Mortensen, Adam Schefter, or John Clayton up on pedestals, they've all been wrong before, probably more often then they've been right (I have plenty of proof of that if anyone wants to question it).

All of these "sources" and the people who claim to have them is nothing but an elaborate system so people can act like they're important. Do people honestly believe that so many players, agents, and GMs would openly talk with anybody who doesn't need-to-know? Especially once you consider what's at stake. $60 million isn't exactly chump change.

So when talk like this comes out, always take it with a grain of salt. Use your head, think logically. Just because some talking heads say something doesn't mean it's true, no matter how "credible" they want you to believe they are.

Just look at the facts.

FACT - Miami has opened contract negotiations with Jake Long.
FACT - Miami wants to have the deal in place so their investment is in training camp.
FACT - Miami has a major need at Offensive Tackle (along with many other positions....)
(almost) FACT - Miami hasn't opened contract negotiations with anyone else.

We have a pretty good idea that they haven't opened any other negotiations. Of course, for reasons mentioned before, we can't be completely sure, but it's closer to fact then any speculation of smokescreens, rumored trades, or passing on the pick.

Based only on facts, and forgetting the rest of the media fabricated drama, Jake Long is going to be the first pick of the 2008 NFL Draft.

And Bill Parcells is going to surprise the world.