We used sportsclubstats.com to determine the Panthers' playoff probabilities, so why not take an early look at the Marlins? After all, they're alone in first place 7 games into the season. How much difference does one week make?
According to them, it does make a slight difference. The Marlins currently boast a 29.9% chance of making the playoffs, fourth highest in the National League. The problem with these numbers as applied to baseball, of course, is that baseball is a streaky sport, where the landscape changes quickly. Do the Diamondbacks really have a 37.1% chance of making the playoffs because they're 6-1? I doubt it, but it's interesting to think about.
The more valuable statistic just might be the projected wins requirement. Sportsclubstats.com predicts that the Marlins would need to go 82-73 the rest of the way to have about a coin-flip's chance of making the playoffs. That would make them 86-76. I highly doubt that would be enough (88 MIGHT win the division in a very cluttered year), but we can play pretend for a day. We'll monitor that number as it goes up.
Wednesday, April 9, 2008
Marlins Early Playoff Chances
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Try coolstandings.com - they have more realistic probabilities. The site takes into account last year's stats, along with current performance and record. The Marlins are currently given a 6.8% chance of making the playoffs. Beating the Nationals or Pirates early in the season unfortunately does not make the Marlins locks for making the playoffs!
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