Panthers' Playoff Chances

I've done a lot of speculating in previous posts about what the Panthers need to do to make the playoffs. With 9 games to go, I said 6-2-1. At 6 games, I said 5-1. Thanks to a truly wonderful site (sportsclubstats.com), we can actually evaluate this on a statistical level.

According to them, the Panthers currently have a 10.6% chance of making the playoffs. Of course, this doesn't account for the Panthers' streaky play, which could vault them much higher. Here is the breakdown among relevant teams:

Carolina: 94.3%
Philadelphia: 82.6%
Boston: 69.1%
Washington: 21.9%
Buffalo: 19.4%
Florida: 10.6%
Toronto: 4.5%

Looking further, the Panthers have a 2% chance at the 3rd seed (division title over Carolina), 2% chance of the 7th seed, and a 7% chance at the 8th seed. These aren't promising numbers, but don't despair yet.

Here is a breakdown of the Panthers' chances by record:

6-0-0 (12 pts): 95.1% (3rd seed 42%; 6th seed 4%; 7th seed 27%; 8th seed 22%)
5-0-1 (11 pts): 75.8% (3rd seed 23%; 6th seed 1%; 7th seed 15%; 8th seed 37%)
5-1-0 (10 pts): 56.4% (3rd seed 10%; 7th seed 9%; 8th seed 37%)
4-0-2 (10 pts): 38.8% (3rd seed 6%; 7th seed 5%; 8th seed 28%)
4-1-1 (9 pts): 18.4% (3rd seed 2%; 7th seed 1%; 8th seed 15%)
3-0-3 (9 pts): 8.5% (3rd seed 1%; 8th seed 7%)
4-2-0 (8 pts): 7.3% (8th seed)
3-1-2 (8 pts): 2.3% (8th seed)
2-0-4 (8 pts): 1.0% (8th seed)
3-2-1 (7 pts): 0.4% (8th seed)
2-1-3 (7 pts): 0.1% (8th seed)
3-3-0 (6 pts): 0.1% (8th seed)

Notice how going 5-1 instead of 4-0-2 makes such a difference. It shows the importance of winning the Total Win tiebreakers.

I should also point out that I was pretty accurate in my estimates. I just thought 4-1-1 would be a little bit higher.

The Panthers know what hurdles they have in front of them. Come away with 11 points and they should be in. 10 and they'll need help. 9 or less and they'll need a lot of help.

(We'll be tracking their percentages after each night from now on).