A Rotation Without Clasps

Nolasco. Miller. Olsen. Johnson. Volstad. Not a weak link among them. Shake it, slam it against a wall, strike at any point...it still holds strong.

That's how I feel about the current state of things. For the first time, Marlins fans can feel confident in their starter, no matter the day or game. Each one has demonstrated an ability to pitch well, especially of late.

From now on, opponents will glance ahead at the Marlins series and think: "I don't feel good about any of these matchups."

Marlins to face the King

Felix Hernandez, aka King Felix, faces the Florida Marlins tonight. After easily cruising through the first game against the Mariners, the Marlins will face a much bigger challenge tonight. The 22-year old fireballer has been almost unhittable with his fastball consistently in the mid-upper 90's. In his last 3 starts, he has not allowed an earned run in 21 innings of work. In fact, in his last 10 starts, he has allowed over 7 hits only once.

It'll take a solid effort from Marlins hurler Scott Olsen tonight to keep the Mariners offense where they've been pretty much this whole season, in the cellar. Olsen has been equally impressive as of late, despite his 0-1 record through those 3 games. He's only allowed 4 runs on 14 hits in his last 19 innings of work.

It sets up to be a great pitcher's battle, and the added confines of pitcher-friendly Safeco Field plus the cooler temperatures in the upper 40's all add up to what should be a great duel.

Nolasco Splendid

Ricky Nolasco is becoming the Marlins' definitive ace. He was superb today, going 8 2/3 innings on route to his seventh victory. It was a shame he couldn't get the complete game, but Fredi had no choice but to take him out after 130+ pitches.

The Marlins are 2-3 in their last five games, but the rotation (usually the weak point) held its end of the bargain. Miller and Nolasco were phenomenal in their wins, while Scott Olsen pitched extremely well and Hendrickson was adequate in losing efforts. Only Ryan Tucker performed poorly, and he settled down after a shaky start to the game.

With the next three games in Seattle against the struggling Mariners, I like the Marlins' chances of regaining some lost momentum. Look for strong showings from Miller and Olsen in the next two, with a bounce back game from Ryan Tucker on Wednesday.

F***ing Jamie Moyer

You know that scene at the end of Dodgeball, when White Goodman says "F***ing Chuck Norris!" over a plate of Latarian Milton's chicken wings (see here for that ridiculous story)? Well that's how I feel about elderly home escapee Jamie Moyer, who puts aside his prostate medication for a few days each year just to torture Marlins fans.

Seriously, WHY CAN'T THE MARLINS HIT HIM??? It's not like he's throwing unhittable stuff out there. The Marlins wasted a tremendous start from Scott Olsen, falling feebly by a score of 3-0. Olsen was the one bright spot, his velocity consistently in the upper 80's and his strike-ball ratio nearly 3-1. At least that was encouraging.

Just how bad was the offense? The Marlins only once had a guy reach second base, they had no hits until the 5th inning, and they were being blown away by 67 mph pitches all night. Ah, frustrating! Say it with me: F***ING JAMIE MOYER!

P.S. Let's steal his Preparation H before his next start.

Welcome to the Big Leagues, Kid

Ryan Tucker has arrived. Mark it down, circle the date and remember this one, because it is the kind of starting pitching kick-start that the Fish need. And after last night's error-filled, opportunity-missed, cowbell rung, Cody Ross saved game, the Marlins will try to put the recent sloppy play behind them and get things rolling again.

(By the way: We could have something with these cowbells, Cody Ross seemed to respond very well to them, as well as the chants of "CODY! CODY! CODY!" that rang out before, during and after his dramatic walk-off.)

The reason I haven't posted in a while was that I was preoccupied with the Marlins' dreadful showing of pitching in Atlanta. Riding all the way from Turner Field back to North Springs on MARTA after the Fish blew three leads in that series wasn't fun. I did enjoy the ride on Wednesday afternoon however, after Rabelo and Hanley hit those tying and winning homers, respectively.

Anyway, it seemed, for good reason, that the Braves and their fans were more comfortable coming from behind against the shaky Marlins hurlers.

Which brings me back to Tucker, who with his electric stuff, can infuse life into this worn-down staff like Dontrelle Willis did in 2003.

As Tucker sat on the bench and watched his new teammates pad the 2-1 lead he left the game with, he was accompanied by Scott Olsen. Don't know what Olsen was telling him (I'm kind of worried though, based on this article) but it probably was something along the lines of:

"Welcome to the Big Leagues, kid."

Marlins fans sure are glad you're here.

Most Dependable Starter? Ricky Nolasco

Tonight, Ricky Nolasco will battle Braves somewhat-sensation Jair Jurrjens for Game 4 of the series. As I'm sure you all know, the Braves lead the series 2-1, despite each team blowing a late lead in all three games.

The first three games may have been screwy, coming down to fluky bullpen mishaps, but I expect tonight's game to play out more traditionally. Ricky Nolasco has been very solid lately, regaining his pre-injury 2006 form (remember, he beat Brandon Webb). It's a rotating circus, but he leads my current list of most dependable Marlins starters. Here it is:

1. Ricky Nolasco
2. Scott Olsen
3. Andrew Miller
4. Mark Hendrickson
5. Burke Badenhop

Scott Olsen is barely hanging on to the second spot, but a solid performance Monday gave him some breathing room. Andrew Miller seems fine when he can get past the first couple innings, but that's a big if. Hendrickson was mediocre yesterday, but that was after three bad starts in a row. And Badenhop? He was never good enough to earn confidence, though he could very well ascend after a couple more starts.

Putting it bluntly, the Marlins rotation is consistently inconsistent, excellently mediocre, and erratic as a sugar-high toddler. And maybe that's beautiful; on any given night, they can be Sandy Koufax...or Anthony Young.

Either way, I like the ball in the hands of Nolasco tonight.

Scott Olsen Math

Remember way back in algebra class when you had to compute velocity in those "real world" problems?

Well Scott Olsen is on the verge of a real world problem...that's if his fastball continues to decline in velocity. Ever since that started happening, he's been knocked around. He went from low 90's to upper 80's to mid 80's. Mid 80's has been synonymous with getting shellacked, so we don't want that.

I won't lie. I'm terrified of his first fastball, because it should tell the whole story. Fish Stripes put his barometer at 87 mph. I'm going to go up to 88. Much like Back to the Future, he'd better hit 88 or he won't be seeing much of the future...that being, past the third inning.

Fingers crossed.

Big Game Tonight

The first two games of the Marlins-Mets series went pretty much as expected. The Marlins took the first game against Mike Pelfrey, while stumbling against Santana in Game 2.

The Fish have a wonderful opportunity to assert their division dominance tonight. Not only would it stifle the Mets, but it would give the Marlins ammunition going into the huge weekend series in Philadelphia (a team destroying the ball right now).

Scott Olsen will try and rebound from a poor performance against the Giants. He'll face a shaky-of-late Oliver Perez. The problem, of course, is that the Marlins have struggled mightily against two kinds of pitchers: lefties and junk-throwers. Oliver Perez is both, known especially for his wildness...will the Marlins show enough patience to get men on base?

Perez dominated the Marlins in their first meeting this year, but much has changed. Olsen vs. Perez should be an exciting southpaw armageddon, with considerable bragging rights to go around. As TO might say, "Get your popcorn ready!"

Marlins On Top of the World

There are so many positive things to say about this week's shocking series sweep of the Diamondbacks. I'm almost at a loss for words...but I found a few. Here are 10 things to be excited about if you're a Marlins fan:

1. The combined record of the three Diamondbacks pitchers (Owings, Webb, and Haren) was 19-3 coming into the series. Now? 19-6. Wow!

2. At 8 over .500, the Marlins have regained their stride after showing signs of decline.

3. The Marlins won all three games, despite missing Scott Olsen. He goes tonight.

4. Andrew Miller is becoming fantastic. I know, it's amazing. He's throwing fireballs out there and is being referred to as "the ace of the staff" by some.

5. The national media is fully on board now. While many doubt the Marlins' ability to stay the course, they've become, as Tim Kurkjian said, "the most exciting story in the National League."

6. Ricky Nolasco is molding into that solid third starter the Fish have desperately needed...oh wait, fourth starter if Andrew Miller's suddenly the ace.

7. You'll never hear anything again about the Marlins beating up on bad teams.

8. All this was done without Josh Willingham, who was having an All-star level season.

9. It happened with Hanley Ramirez in one of the worst slumps of his career.

10. A torrid Matt Treanor is now the starter...thankfully!

The "Bad," "Ill," and "No!" Games

We've had copious discussions here at The South Florida Fan about the disparity in the Marlins rotation. Scott Olsen and Mark Hendrickson have excelled, collectively boasting a 9-2 record, while the unholy trinity of Burke Badenhop, Andrew Miller, and Ricky Nolasco account for 4-7.

Considering how poorly the bottom three have pitched, 4-7 is pretty startling. Here are their ERAs:

Badenhop: 6.31
Miller: 7.96
Nolasco: 6.10

Those are unacceptable numbers for any starting pitcher in the Major Leagues, let alone three on the same team!

So how have the Fish managed to work around it? You could argue timely hitting, but the real answer is through inconsistency. Badenhop, Miller, and Nolasco have essentially been good or terrible, with little in between. The games where they racked up the high ERA points, they blew the game wide open. In their other starts, they gave up only 2-3 runs.

Whenever the Marlins win when these guys pitch (such as last night, when Badenhop pitched extremely well), it almost feels like an extra win. DSponge and I have been speculating that the Marlins need to win the Olsen and Hendrickson starts and then one of the bottom three each week to stay in contention. That's not going to last forever, so ultimately one of these bottom three will have to join the ranks of respectability.

Nickname Note: These games will from heretoforth be referred to as the "Bad, Ill, and No" games (for BADenhop, MIller, NOlasco). This constitutes the second coined nickname from The South Florida Fan:

The South Florida Fan Record Book:
1. Coined The Great Andino for Robert Andino.
2. Coined "The Bad, Ill, and No" games.

We encourage all fellow Marlins bloggers to follow our lead.

Your 1st Place Florida Marlins

It may not last that long (as we've been repeatedly saying all year), but the Marlins are once again in first place. Not by much...in fact, just by percentage points. The current standings:

Florida: 18-14, .563
Philadelphia: 19-15, .559
NY Mets: 16-15, .516
Atlanta: 16-15, .516
Washington: 14-19, .424

Just so you know, these would be the final standings if we factored in the current percentage points:

Florida: 91.2-70.8
Philadelphia: 90.6-71.4
NY Mets: 83.6-78.4
Atlanta: 83.6-78.4
Washington: 68.7 - 93.3

So yes, the percentage point difference amounts to almost nothing, but it is what it is. All hail Scott Olsen (4-1, 2.22 ERA) and the first place Marlins, who can boast that they held the spot as late as 5/6/08. Let's hope the same can be said on 10/1/08 as well.

Marlins Lose a Tough One...Or Twelve

I'm a little stung for words right now. The Marlins were beaten soundly last night, falling 13-1 to Chad Billingsley and the Dodgers. It was not how the Marlins envisioned things, and now they'll have to pull off a win this afternoon to salvage the series.

I was the unfortunate soothsayer who pointed out the possibility of erroneous pitching numbers. It seems Billingsley picked the Marlins for his first good start of the season, while Olsen mixed in a bad egg.

Today's matchup?

Badenhop vs. Kuroda, a matchup that favors the Dodgers. The Marlins have to take a game in this series though, right? It would help if they had Jacobs and Willingham.

Olsen vs. Billingsley: Marlins Have the Edge?

When I saw the pitching matchup for last night's game (Andrew Miller vs. Derek Lowe), I knew the odds would be steep. Fortunately for the Marlins, things appear quite the opposite tonight:

Scott Olsen: 3-0, 2.06 ERA
Chad Billingsley: 0-4, 6.53 ERA

Of course, that also puts a lot more pressure on the Marlins. They've gotten to the point where they have to win the Olsen starts (a situation unlikely to change until Andrew Miller gets blasted down to AAA...please???).

Now here's some more discouraging news. Take a look at their 2007 stats:

Scott Olsen: 10-15, 5.81 ERA
Chad Billingsley: 12-5, 3.31 ERA

So the bigger question: Has April, 2008 has been a fluke or a legitimate trend? Things can change quickly...we'll find out tonight.

At 14-9, Who's All-Star Bound?

Riding the coattails of the newly immortalized Scott Olsen, the Marlins eeked out a 3-0 extra-inning win over Milwaukee. It was a victory in which the Marlins showed their versatility; we knew they could win the slugfests, but now we know they can take the pitchers' duels too. A truly superb win.

Olsen's magnificence got me to thinking about the All-Star game. Here's my list of potential all-stars, with a brief explanation and probability estimate:

Hitters:
1. Hanley Ramirez, SS - He won't be voted in as a starter, but he's destined for a spot. Probability: 90%
2. Dan Uggla, 2B - Even with his early struggles, 2B is the least competitive field. Utley's the certain starter, but Uggla should squeeze in behind. Probability: 55%
3. Josh Willingham, OF - He'll have to keep things up, but right now he stands a decent chance. Probability: 40%
4. Mike Jacobs, 1B - Too competitive a position for Big Jake, but his ridiculously hot start at least puts him in contention. Probability: 5%
5. Jorge Cantu, 3B - Chipper Jones and David Wright are locks, so Cantu would have to be good enough to earn a third spot. Probability: 2.5%

Pitchers:
1. Scott Olsen: At 3-0, 2.06, Olsen would make the team today, but his lack of name recognition and competition still make the odds steep. Probability: 25%
2. Kevin Gregg: He'll need to rack up more saves, but the 3-0 record should help too. Probability: 20%
3. Renyel Pinto: Rarely does a non-closer make the squad, but Pinto has been brilliant enough to deserve a mention. Probability: 1%
4. Mark Hendrickson: If Olsen goes, he certainly won't. Still, at 4-1, I had to list him. Probability: .25%

Total Odds: At least two should make it, with the third a 50/50 shot.

Scott Olsen Does it Again

Another fantastic start from Scott Olsen. He pitched 7.1 innings against Milwaukee allowing ZERO earned runs and gave up only 4 hits on just 99 pitches. He kept the Marlins in the game and gave them the opportunity to win it in extras, 3-0. His ERA has fallen to 2.06 - and that's including his first start, coming out of injury, where he gave up 4 runs in five innings against the Pirates.

People can say what they want such as, "the Marlins pitching will falter eventually," or, "this team is on a hot streak and will cool off quickly," or "Hendrickson certainly won't last...he's a 5th starter on any other team," but nobody is going to tell me that Scott Olsen is having a surprise beginning to the season. I just won't hear it.

I am convinced that he will remain a bright spot in the rotation throughout the year for the Marlins. This is not a fluke, this guy is for real. How comforting it is to know that the Marlins will likely win every time he pitches.

And by the way, I have taken note of Olsen since the SFF was in its infant stages. Go all the way back to March 17 with one of my first pieces: The Scott Olsen Turn-around. Anyone who disagrees with me, do not hesitate to comment on this post.

Interesting Pitching Matchups in Marlins - Brewers Series

For the Marlins, this weekend features a series against the Brewers in Milwaukee. Each game in the series could go either way due to the even pitching matchups:

Friday:
FLA: Olsen (3-0, 2.60 ERA)
MIL: Gallardo (0-0, 1.29 ERA)

Saturday:
FLA: Hendrickson (4-1, 3.82 ERA)
MIL: Villanueva (1-2, 5.09 ERA)

Sunday:
FLA: Nolasco (1-2, 5.91 ERA)
MIL: Parra (1-1, 5.40 ERA)

Normally I would say that the Marlins must win the Olsen game and the Hendrickson game to take the series. But as you can see, the Marlins have a great chance on Sunday even though Nolasco's on the mound. There is potential for a Florida sweep, whether it be in or out of our favor.

Nothing Diet About These South Beach Bombers!

I forced myself to go back and read some of our Marlins pre-season posts. I had to put myself back in the March frame of mind, when the Marlins were considered a 65-win team with a blue moon's chance at .500. They traded away their two most recognizable stars. They had no starting pitching. They stacked their bench with long over-the-hillers like Luis Gonzalez and Jason Wood. They had nobody to play center field, third base, or catcher. With Mitre, Sanchez, and Josh Johnson injured, they'd be lucky to win 12 games in April.

How times have changed. Did we really just witness the Marlins expanding their division lead to 1.5 games, blistering their way to a stellar 12-7 record? My eyes don't deceive me, right? This is really happening? Somebody pinch me.

The best part about it? The biggest weakness, starting pitching, is beginning to come around. Scott Olsen has been magnificent at 3-0, and Mark Hendrickson claimed his fourth straight win tonight. Even bitter Miller time is starting to turn the corner, and when Nolasco and Badenhop take their lumps, the bullpen is so lights out, the management doesn't even have to come around for curfew.

Simply put, it's impossible not to become excited about this team. As I watched the Marlins jack three more HRs tonight (26 now, second in MLB), I was reminded of the October magic of 2003. There's something special in the air.

Marlins Return to Winning Ways

The Marlins defeated their rival, Atlanta Braves, 4-0 today. When looking at the schedule, this would be a game you would think the Marlins should win, with their ace, Scott Olsen, facing off against the talented yet inexperienced, Jair Jurrjens of Atlanta.

Scott Olsen was phenomenal, finally performing at the level that all Marlins' fans were hoping him to be at this season. Olsen pitched 7 scoreless innings, allowing 5 hits and only throwing 83 pitches, 61 of which were strikes. Olsen could have pitched longer, as you can see from his low pitch total, but he was taken out for pinch-hitter, Robert Andino, in the bottom of the 7th with Amezaga on 1st base. The Braves only scoring opportunity came in the 6th inning with guys on 1st and 2nd and nobody out. But Olsen forced Chipper Jones and Mark Teixeira to fly out and Jeff Francoeur to ground out, ending the inning. Olsen is now 2-0 on the year with an ERA of 3.05.

The Marlins offense was efficient, scoring 4 runs on 7 hits. Two of them came in the 8th inning as insurance on two walks to Wes Helms and Hanley Ramirez with the bases loaded.

It's games like these that make me optimistic about this year's Marlins season and the future of the franchise as a whole.

Pitching-wise, Olsen seems to be filling into the role as the ace in the rotation. Hendrickson (tomorrow's starter) is questionable but could be solid this season. Andrew Miller has great potential (although he has been terrible as of late) and Vanden Hurk, Badenhop, and Volstad are three guys who could be excellent in the majors as they develop.

More importantly, let's not forget about the guys on the DL: Sergio Mitre, Annibal Sanchez, and Josh Johnson. Mitre could be back by June, Sanchez by the All-star break, and Johnson at the end of the year. Yes, it is unlikely that all of these guys will come back and pitch successfully the way they did at their best in the past, but there is a great potential there. The point is that the Fish have excellent pitching in the farm system and on the DL.

Offensively, the team is and will be in good shape. With the stadium having been approved, Loria will be less reluctant to let the "fan favorites" go.

In response to the previous posts about the recovery of the South Florida professional franchises, I agree with ASponge and disagree with Imber and Stanley about the Marlins. This team has a knack for somehow surprising everyone and staying late in playoff races when no one gives them a chance.

Commence The Mike Jacobs Free-For-All

The start by the Marlins to the ‘08 season should be savored. The Fish are in first-place, but the success needs to be met with tempered enthusiasm. The team has a -14 run differential, and still has to compete with the supremely talented Mets, Braves, and Phillies. That said, it’s not uncommon to play winning baseball with some smoke, mirrors, and the fortuitous injury to a division foe’s ace or star bat.

And, being the optimist that I wish I was, the team is stacked with a deep crop of arms down on the farm, a high 1st round pick this year, a potential star in Cameron Maybin, and a group of young assets already on the 40-man roster.

And there is a group of players who will become expendable come July and in December: The arbitration-eligibles and the upcoming free agents.

• Kevin Gregg
• Luis Gonzalez
• Mark Hendrickson
• Sergio Mitre
• Alfredo Amezega
• Justin Miller
• Jorge Cantu
• Hanley Ramírez
• Dan Uggla
• Dallas McPherson
• Scott Olsen
• Josh Willingham
• Jeremy Hermida
• Mike Jacobs

Ramírez, Uggla, McPherson, Olsen, Hermida, and Jacobs will all be entering their first year of arbitration, so even Hanley, Uggla, and Hermida will be cheap enough to be members of the ’09 Marlins. The rest will certainly be cheap enough to keep, too; but should they be moved? The name that jumps out to me is Mike Jacobs. Jacobs, Pedro’s former BFF, along with the late Nelson de la Rosa (RIP), is off to a hot start. He’s batting .298, .951 OPS, and 5 HRs in only 47 ABs. Any statistical argument at this point is premature due to the small sample size. But if he can keep up this hot start, his value come late June or July may be at its highest. This is because Jacobs is a very flawed player, overall.

First, the reasons why he may appear to some GMs as a valuable pickup would be his age (27), his power (53 career HRs in only 1042 ABs), and his handedness (lefty hitting). The key reason, though, is his contract. Arbitration eligible next year, Jacobs will likely earn $1.25MM-$2.00MM in 2009 depending on his 2008 season.

It's simply too much for a player on the Marlins with the holes in his swing that Jacobs has. His swing is long, and the evidence backs it up. Jacobs’ power is entirely fastball power; he hits an abysmal .063 against LHP curveballs, and .129 against sliders from lefties. And the scariest part is how much he hedges on the fastball, cheating his swing. His swing rate on 2-0 counts is 52%, which is much higher than the average player. For reference, even Adam Dunn, one of the premier fastball sluggers, swings 38% of the time on 2-0 counts; and Andruw Jones, who has been cheating on fastballs for the bulk of his career, is at 42%.

Jacobs certainly makes sense for the Marlins this year; he’s cheap ($395,000), mostly, but should produce another 100 OPS+ season and play serviceable defense. Hopefully Michael Hill will strike, though, while the perceived value of Jacobs remains high.

Marlins Still Strong at 7-5

These last two losses have been difficult to take. Poor pitching, anemic offense, questionable managing, and listless fielding were all present, reminding us of why many analysts predicted gloom and doom before the season started.

Fortunately, they were just two games. Let's put this in perspective:

1. The Marlins went 4-2 on the road trip.
2. The Marlins still lead the division by 1.5 games.
3. Jeremy Hermida is back, and he's tearing it up.
4. Scott Olsen and Mark Hendrickson start the next two games.

As you can see, things are still looking quite good in Marlins Cove. With a day off to let things simmer, the Marlins can take out their frustrations on the Braves.

And let's face it. Would you have taken 7-5, 1st place through 12 games? As in those fateful words from The Who: "You better, you better, you bet."