Marlins on the Rebound

Things were looking pretty grim for the Marlins. Some thought that 18-17 debacle in Colorado would derail their season...I wondered if they could recover.

Well here are the facts:

1. Since dropping the first three to the Rockies, the Marlins are 4-1. This "nightmare" road trip is now 4-4.

2. Major credit goes to Fredi Gonzalez and Larry Beinfest, for replacing both Ryan Tucker and Mark Hendrickson with Josh Johnson and Chris Volstad. It could not have come a week later.

3. Hanley Ramirez is carrying this team. Last night? Game-winning home run. Remember when he couldn't hit the side of George W. Bush's enormous Crawford, TX barn? All in the past now. This is why he got that hefty contract, and he's earning it all.

So what now?

The Marlins have three games left before the All-Star break. If they can take two of three, they'd cap off the first half with 50 wins (50-45). And let's not forget, they'll have played more road games too.

What a Difference a Day Makes...

Following the 3rd game of the Marlins-Rockies series, it felt as though things were starting to come apart. Our starting rotation, with Ryan Tucker and Mark Hendrickson, couldn't get out of the 4th inning of a game and was looking extremely hittable. The Marlins blew a 9-run lead, and closer Kevin Gregg blew consecutive saves. The Marlins fell to 3.5 games back and were falling fast.

Turn the page to game 4 on Sunday. Chris Volstad gets called up from Carolina and enters the game down 4-3. Two scoreless, well pitched innings later, the Marlins have the lead, Volstad goes on to get the win and is promptly inserted into the starting rotation. Kevin Gregg pitched a solid inning Sunday, albeit with a 5-run lead. We also learn that Josh Johnson will be joining Volstad in the starting five. Johnson gets the start Thursday, Volstad on Friday.

Now, we come to tonight's game in San Diego. Emerging staff ace Ricky Nolasco pitches an 8 inning gem, giving up just 5 hits and 1 run. Due to the way the batting order fell in the top of the 9th, Nolasco came up just an inning short of the Marlins first complete game in 264 games. Kevin Gregg comes in and retires the Padres in order, recording the save.

Just to touch on it, the umpiring call made on Hanley's potential RBI double in the 7th was questionable, at best, although if you were listening to the Padres radio crew, they saw it as "the crew coming together, and they got the call right." Even the Marlins crew thought it was the right call, but it was more of an issue of overturning the original call. No one had a better view than the 3rd base ump who made the call.

Anyways, we'll never know what was said in the umpire conference, or who said they saw what, but whether it was fair or foul turned out to be a non-issue, thanks to Nolasco and Gregg. Nolasco threw like the staff veteran he is (despite being just 25, he is currently the oldest starting pitcher on the Marlins). He bested Greg Maddux, who still has not won since his 350th win came May 10th. With the new rotation, hopes are high. And thanks to the floundering Phillies, the Marlins are now just 1.5 games back of the division lead.

What a difference a day makes...

Josh Johnson and Chris Volstad In! Who's Out?

Imagine the utter delight I felt this morning when I learned that not one - but both - of the Marlins' dead weight rotation inhabitors were being relegated to the pen.

Yep, that's right! As reported here by Fish Stripes, both Ryan Tucker AND Mark Hendrickson are out. I never thought it would happen. I hoped, prayed, dreamed, but never believed. Finally, we're rid of Hendrickson!

How exciting will it be to see Josh Johnson pitch on Thursday, then Volstad on Friday. Suddenly, the Marlins have a good hurler going every night (and boy do they need it with the current status of the bullpen...Hendrickson included!) The next five games? Nolasco-Miller-Olsen-Johnson-Volstad. I like all five of them right now.

I would imagine Ryan Tucker gets sent down to AAA once Josh Johnson is officially called up. I like Tucker a lot, but it's obvious he needs more refinement. Hendrickson gave a great April, a mediocre May, and a horrible June-July. The time was right. I hope he regains some form in his new role, but he just couldn't be put out there any more.

Marlins Signing Their Draft Picks

As I casually observe the Marlins down 3-0 at the moment, I suddenly find myself more interested in the future of the team. The good news for the teal and black is that they've been signing their draft picks.

Here's an excerpt from the informative report of Future Fish:

"The Fish have signed first pick Kyle Skipworth for $2.3mil and he’s already in camp. Big win right there for the Marlins to already have him signed and ready. RHP Pete Andrelczyk signed for $185,000. 3B Paul Gran signed for $40,000. LHP Daniel Jennings signed for $145,000 out of Nebraska. The other signees have been RHP Bryan Evans, RHP Johnny Dorn, LHP Andy Loomis, RHP Thomas Koehler, OF Kenneth Bass, LHP Wade Korpi, 2B Lonnie Lechelt, C Robert Taylor, OF Kevin Mattison, 3B Richard Orton, RHP Wayman Gooch, OF Brian Schultz, RHP Drew Clothier, OF Jeremy Synan, and 3B Joel Staples."

By the way, it's now 5-0 and Hendrickson is chased from the game. The Rays look all-world while the Marlins are really struggling. Bad, bad times.

Marlins Suffer Bitter Bitter Loss. Familiar?

There are now about five games that have played out similarly. They're all on the road, they all involve see-saw games that go into extra innings, and they usually include some kind of terrible play in the field.

Last night, the Marlins completely blew the game away. Hanley Ramirez and Luis Gonzalez both dropped extremely playable balls in the worst of situations. This, coming despite Dan Uggla's two home runs (one to tie the game), Jeremy Hermida's two-run blast, and a long ball from Hanley. Even Mark Hendrickson pitched moderately well. What a shame.

If the Marlins end up losing the division by 1 game, mark down 6/20/08 on your calendar. This was just brutal.

Quick Notes

I'm going to try and do this once or twice a week. These are just a few observations:


-Jamie Moyer has become so bad late in his career, that he is good. If only Roger Clemens could have learned from him...

-The Braves have signed Jorge Julio. Did the Braves decide that this was cheaper than holding a press conference to concede the season?

-Uggla has looked Uggla since that Walk-Off Granny...(Of course, as I write this, he hits an RBI single.)

-I know it's still early, but looking at the division and Wild Card standings, it is going to be a real fight for the Fish to get a playoff spot.

-Is there anything more boring that off-season football discussion? I'm sorry, but it's the heart of baseball season, and the NBA finals have been extremely entertaining. Save the talk about the Bengals backup OT.

-This weekend's wild ride of a U.S. Open marked the first time I watched golf for more than 30 seconds in a row. I salute Tiger Woods.

-I realize that it is all about the money, but Staples Center turning into the Academy Awards has hurt the team, the "fans" don't even seem to know when to cheer.

-Back to the NBA and money. Is it a bad sign when scouting reports are now telling us how, and in favor of what team, will each game be officiated?

-One more time. How many people are going to have to sue Clay Bennett before people realize what an injustice the Sonics' situation is?

-What the hell, here's another. David Stern is slowly becoming one of the shadiest commissioners in the history of sports. I realize Donaghy is a scumbag, but these officiating rumors, joined with the Seattle situation, ave really got me wondering about this guy.

-Neither KG or Kobe has impressed me at all this series. Paul Pierce is the only "star" who is significantly adding to his legacy.

-Ricky Nolasco's Drug-Free commercial is nothing but high comedy.

-Forget it, I'm mad at the NBA. Oklahoma City? Really?

-I'm almost positive that one of Derek Fisher's three-pointers hit the roof of the Staples Center.

-Having Willingham for interleague play would've been nice. Maybe I just don't like Wes Helms...

-Ryan Tucker looks like he should be on the 90210 remake.

-What happened to Hendrickson? Do the effects of Lasik only last a couple of months?

-Most exciting game, in any sport, that I've watched all week? Turkey vs Cezch Republic in the Euro Cup.

-I've had no complaints with Fredi Gonzalez, but he needs to find a way to manage pitch count better. Every pitcher we have seems overworked.


-Was I the only one hoping for a "Yankees Wang Hurt" headline? I was? Oh well...

Nolasco Splendid

Ricky Nolasco is becoming the Marlins' definitive ace. He was superb today, going 8 2/3 innings on route to his seventh victory. It was a shame he couldn't get the complete game, but Fredi had no choice but to take him out after 130+ pitches.

The Marlins are 2-3 in their last five games, but the rotation (usually the weak point) held its end of the bargain. Miller and Nolasco were phenomenal in their wins, while Scott Olsen pitched extremely well and Hendrickson was adequate in losing efforts. Only Ryan Tucker performed poorly, and he settled down after a shaky start to the game.

With the next three games in Seattle against the struggling Mariners, I like the Marlins' chances of regaining some lost momentum. Look for strong showings from Miller and Olsen in the next two, with a bounce back game from Ryan Tucker on Wednesday.

Josh Johnson Back Soon?

I never really planned on Josh Johnson figuring into the Marlins' plans this year. Craig at Fish Stripes has been reporting the news, but he always speculated that if anything, Johnson would be a September callup in preparation for next year.

Well that tune seems to be changing, Fish Stripes now informs us. Here's an excerpt:

"Josh Johnson was expected to return from Tommy John surgery in late August or early September, but he is far ahead of that pace, and the Marlins believe he will be back around the All-Star break."

That is some unbelievable news! Let's face it...the Marlins rotation is decrepit right now. At this point, I might even bump Hendrickson next. If you watched his last few starts, you can see that he's clearly lost it, and last night he was beyond horrible. Suddenly, you could find yourself with a rotation of Olsen-Johnson-Nolasco-Miller-Tucker. That doesn't sound so bad, does it?

If Josh Johnson can return to old form (accompanied by a better offense these days), that could be a recipe for a guaranteed win every five days.

Edinson Volquez: Beatable?

The Marlins have the tall order of battling rookie sensation-of-all-sensations Edinson Volquez, who has been virtually unhittable all season. The Marlins have had a little success in these situations (Jorge Campillo, for example), but it's going to be very very tough.

The good news is that the Marlins have seen him before, so they won't be stymied by anything novel. Interesting that Mark Hendrickson once again gets the call (and I think we all have less faith in him now). Let's look at how they performed the first time:

- Volquez went 6.0 innings, giving up 7 hits, ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 110 pitches

- The 7 hits: Hendrickson two singles, Cantu single, Uggla single, Amezaga single, Hermida single (so in other words, the Marlins ought to bat Hendrickson in the third spot)

- Hendrickson surrendered 4 ER, 8 hits, 5 BB in just 5.0 innings

Based on the above data, here's what we can conclude:

1. The Marlins need to maximize their hits, since doubles and homers are unlikely.

2. Mark Hendrickson MUST turn in a better showing (2-3 runs tops).

3. Volquez can labor a bit, so the Marlins might be able to tire him out by the 6th inning if they show patience at the plate.

Most Dependable Starter? Ricky Nolasco

Tonight, Ricky Nolasco will battle Braves somewhat-sensation Jair Jurrjens for Game 4 of the series. As I'm sure you all know, the Braves lead the series 2-1, despite each team blowing a late lead in all three games.

The first three games may have been screwy, coming down to fluky bullpen mishaps, but I expect tonight's game to play out more traditionally. Ricky Nolasco has been very solid lately, regaining his pre-injury 2006 form (remember, he beat Brandon Webb). It's a rotating circus, but he leads my current list of most dependable Marlins starters. Here it is:

1. Ricky Nolasco
2. Scott Olsen
3. Andrew Miller
4. Mark Hendrickson
5. Burke Badenhop

Scott Olsen is barely hanging on to the second spot, but a solid performance Monday gave him some breathing room. Andrew Miller seems fine when he can get past the first couple innings, but that's a big if. Hendrickson was mediocre yesterday, but that was after three bad starts in a row. And Badenhop? He was never good enough to earn confidence, though he could very well ascend after a couple more starts.

Putting it bluntly, the Marlins rotation is consistently inconsistent, excellently mediocre, and erratic as a sugar-high toddler. And maybe that's beautiful; on any given night, they can be Sandy Koufax...or Anthony Young.

Either way, I like the ball in the hands of Nolasco tonight.

Double the Fun

No, I'm not talking about a threesome with the Spearmint twins...get your mind out of the gutter!

It's a doubleheader for the Marlins today, which is always more exciting. According to what Marlins Today reports, the opening matchup will feature Burke Badenhop vs. Matt Cain (yesterday's probables), the second Mark Hendrickson vs. Pat Misch. Assuming that holds true to form, both matchups can be favorable for the Fish today.

The key name to watch out for is Tim Lincecum. The Marlins do NOT want to face him...let's hope he's kept aside for the Giants' next series.

Come out to the game(s) and get double the pleasure, double the fun.

The Marlins Lost? No Ledge Needed

We've grown so accustomed to the Marlins winning, it seems like hell freezes over when they lose. Even trailing the Reds 8-4 in the 8th last night, I still felt like the Marlins just might pull it out. They almost did, rallying (with some help from Griffey) to 8-7. It wasn't exactly a moral victory, but it was still nice to see.

Tonight's game is going to be difficult. Rookie Reds sensation Edinson Volquez has been basically unhittable. He boasts 5-1, 1.06 ERA credentials. It gets worse. In not one of his seven starts has he allowed more than a run! Of course, he hasn't faced the homer-happy Marlins yet, so maybe that all will change.

To claim victory tonight, Mark Hendrickson will have to be on his game. He struggled in his last start, laboring through 100+ pitches in less than 5 innings. It was pure smarts and veteran know-how that got him through that. Tonight, he'll need to match Volquez pitch-for-pitch...2 runs tops.

The "Bad," "Ill," and "No!" Games

We've had copious discussions here at The South Florida Fan about the disparity in the Marlins rotation. Scott Olsen and Mark Hendrickson have excelled, collectively boasting a 9-2 record, while the unholy trinity of Burke Badenhop, Andrew Miller, and Ricky Nolasco account for 4-7.

Considering how poorly the bottom three have pitched, 4-7 is pretty startling. Here are their ERAs:

Badenhop: 6.31
Miller: 7.96
Nolasco: 6.10

Those are unacceptable numbers for any starting pitcher in the Major Leagues, let alone three on the same team!

So how have the Fish managed to work around it? You could argue timely hitting, but the real answer is through inconsistency. Badenhop, Miller, and Nolasco have essentially been good or terrible, with little in between. The games where they racked up the high ERA points, they blew the game wide open. In their other starts, they gave up only 2-3 runs.

Whenever the Marlins win when these guys pitch (such as last night, when Badenhop pitched extremely well), it almost feels like an extra win. DSponge and I have been speculating that the Marlins need to win the Olsen and Hendrickson starts and then one of the bottom three each week to stay in contention. That's not going to last forever, so ultimately one of these bottom three will have to join the ranks of respectability.

Nickname Note: These games will from heretoforth be referred to as the "Bad, Ill, and No" games (for BADenhop, MIller, NOlasco). This constitutes the second coined nickname from The South Florida Fan:

The South Florida Fan Record Book:
1. Coined The Great Andino for Robert Andino.
2. Coined "The Bad, Ill, and No" games.

We encourage all fellow Marlins bloggers to follow our lead.

Padres Series a New Opportunity

The three-game home sweep at the hands of the Dodgers was miserable to watch, riddled with 2007-like mistakes, and destructive to the Marlins' position in the standings. At 15-13, the Fish have fallen 1/2 a game behind the Phillies and even with the Mets (though the Mets have a slight percentage points advantage).

Fortunately, the Marlins have some reasons to be optimistic. Willingham and Jacobs should be returning to the lineup any day now, and tonight's pitching matchup of Hendrickson vs. Germano looks favorable. Peavy and Maddux will be tough acts on Saturday and Sunday, but the Marlins have shown an ability to hit good pitchers this year. (Of course, Andrew Miller is slated to pitch Sunday...ugh)

Regardless, the Marlins need to take 2 of 3 in the next two series to salvage this homestand. It starts tonight.

Marlins Fail to Overshadow Dolphins

This may have been the Dolphins' day, but the Marlins also played. It was a disappointing 4-3 loss, decided by a late Prince Fielder home run. The Marlins wasted a good start from Hendrickson while exhibiting an uncharacteristic sloppiness throughout.

A win tomorrow would really further the Marlins' cause as legitimate contenders. They need to demonstrate that they can win a series against a decent team like Milwaukee, especially on the road. 15-10 would sound nice too.

With Nolasco vs. Parra, it's basically a toss-up. It's time to stop hiding in obscurity and show the town who's best. Which Nolasco will show up?

At 14-9, Who's All-Star Bound?

Riding the coattails of the newly immortalized Scott Olsen, the Marlins eeked out a 3-0 extra-inning win over Milwaukee. It was a victory in which the Marlins showed their versatility; we knew they could win the slugfests, but now we know they can take the pitchers' duels too. A truly superb win.

Olsen's magnificence got me to thinking about the All-Star game. Here's my list of potential all-stars, with a brief explanation and probability estimate:

Hitters:
1. Hanley Ramirez, SS - He won't be voted in as a starter, but he's destined for a spot. Probability: 90%
2. Dan Uggla, 2B - Even with his early struggles, 2B is the least competitive field. Utley's the certain starter, but Uggla should squeeze in behind. Probability: 55%
3. Josh Willingham, OF - He'll have to keep things up, but right now he stands a decent chance. Probability: 40%
4. Mike Jacobs, 1B - Too competitive a position for Big Jake, but his ridiculously hot start at least puts him in contention. Probability: 5%
5. Jorge Cantu, 3B - Chipper Jones and David Wright are locks, so Cantu would have to be good enough to earn a third spot. Probability: 2.5%

Pitchers:
1. Scott Olsen: At 3-0, 2.06, Olsen would make the team today, but his lack of name recognition and competition still make the odds steep. Probability: 25%
2. Kevin Gregg: He'll need to rack up more saves, but the 3-0 record should help too. Probability: 20%
3. Renyel Pinto: Rarely does a non-closer make the squad, but Pinto has been brilliant enough to deserve a mention. Probability: 1%
4. Mark Hendrickson: If Olsen goes, he certainly won't. Still, at 4-1, I had to list him. Probability: .25%

Total Odds: At least two should make it, with the third a 50/50 shot.

Interesting Pitching Matchups in Marlins - Brewers Series

For the Marlins, this weekend features a series against the Brewers in Milwaukee. Each game in the series could go either way due to the even pitching matchups:

Friday:
FLA: Olsen (3-0, 2.60 ERA)
MIL: Gallardo (0-0, 1.29 ERA)

Saturday:
FLA: Hendrickson (4-1, 3.82 ERA)
MIL: Villanueva (1-2, 5.09 ERA)

Sunday:
FLA: Nolasco (1-2, 5.91 ERA)
MIL: Parra (1-1, 5.40 ERA)

Normally I would say that the Marlins must win the Olsen game and the Hendrickson game to take the series. But as you can see, the Marlins have a great chance on Sunday even though Nolasco's on the mound. There is potential for a Florida sweep, whether it be in or out of our favor.

Nothing Diet About These South Beach Bombers!

I forced myself to go back and read some of our Marlins pre-season posts. I had to put myself back in the March frame of mind, when the Marlins were considered a 65-win team with a blue moon's chance at .500. They traded away their two most recognizable stars. They had no starting pitching. They stacked their bench with long over-the-hillers like Luis Gonzalez and Jason Wood. They had nobody to play center field, third base, or catcher. With Mitre, Sanchez, and Josh Johnson injured, they'd be lucky to win 12 games in April.

How times have changed. Did we really just witness the Marlins expanding their division lead to 1.5 games, blistering their way to a stellar 12-7 record? My eyes don't deceive me, right? This is really happening? Somebody pinch me.

The best part about it? The biggest weakness, starting pitching, is beginning to come around. Scott Olsen has been magnificent at 3-0, and Mark Hendrickson claimed his fourth straight win tonight. Even bitter Miller time is starting to turn the corner, and when Nolasco and Badenhop take their lumps, the bullpen is so lights out, the management doesn't even have to come around for curfew.

Simply put, it's impossible not to become excited about this team. As I watched the Marlins jack three more HRs tonight (26 now, second in MLB), I was reminded of the October magic of 2003. There's something special in the air.

Tough Test Tonight: Can the Marlins Survive the Hudson?

The Marlins posted their best game of the season last night, a 4-0 combined shutout over the Braves. That was surely impressive, especially with Olsen going 7 innings with no walks. Tonight will be a much tougher test.

Facing Tim Hudson is the opportunity to prove merit. Even though they can probably afford to lose this game, as a Hudson-Hendrickson matchup is clearly unbalanced, a win tonight would justify the first place position the Marlins now hold. If nothing else, a good showing would silence some of the nay-sayers out there who refuse to recognize the potential that the Marlins have displayed so far in their first 13 games.

A large crowd would be helpful, but that is unlikely in south Florida on a Wednesday night. I just hope that there will be more Marlins than Braves fans to see whether the Marlins can survive in fresh water.

Marlins Still Strong at 7-5

These last two losses have been difficult to take. Poor pitching, anemic offense, questionable managing, and listless fielding were all present, reminding us of why many analysts predicted gloom and doom before the season started.

Fortunately, they were just two games. Let's put this in perspective:

1. The Marlins went 4-2 on the road trip.
2. The Marlins still lead the division by 1.5 games.
3. Jeremy Hermida is back, and he's tearing it up.
4. Scott Olsen and Mark Hendrickson start the next two games.

As you can see, things are still looking quite good in Marlins Cove. With a day off to let things simmer, the Marlins can take out their frustrations on the Braves.

And let's face it. Would you have taken 7-5, 1st place through 12 games? As in those fateful words from The Who: "You better, you better, you bet."