Willingham Healed. The Hammer is Back!

How long have we been awaiting Josh Willingham's return? Since the ides of April, practically, which would be the appropriate month for a baseball soothsayer (see Caesar, Julius and Shakespeare, William for more details). Okay, it's really been since April 27th...only 12 days off.

Just how good was Willingham before back trouble sent him to the sidelines?

He was hitting .341/.406/.627 (AVG/OBP/SLG) with 6 HRs, 16 RBI, and 16 runs scored. Imagine what those numbers could do for the Marlins offense now.

The bigger question, of course, is how his return will affect the playing time of others. Luis Gonzalez will assuredly be the one who suffers most, but expect Luis to still get a fair share of playing time. Willingham will probably rest every few days to lower strain on his back, and Gonzalez could get some starts in right field over Jeremy Hermida (what a great defensive alignment that is...Willingham-Ross-Gonzalez...easily the worst in baseball).

Should Gonzalez be given the starts over Hermida? Let's break down their numbers:

Gonzalez: .274/.357/.415, 5 HRs, 29 RBI. Of note: With runners in scoring position, he's batting .357.

Hermida: .272/.330/.434, 8 HRs, 37 RBI.

Their numbers are basically about even, with Hermida the better defensive player and the one with more upside. As much as I've enjoyed Gonzo, he's the odd man out.

Marlins Suffer Bitter Bitter Loss. Familiar?

There are now about five games that have played out similarly. They're all on the road, they all involve see-saw games that go into extra innings, and they usually include some kind of terrible play in the field.

Last night, the Marlins completely blew the game away. Hanley Ramirez and Luis Gonzalez both dropped extremely playable balls in the worst of situations. This, coming despite Dan Uggla's two home runs (one to tie the game), Jeremy Hermida's two-run blast, and a long ball from Hanley. Even Mark Hendrickson pitched moderately well. What a shame.

If the Marlins end up losing the division by 1 game, mark down 6/20/08 on your calendar. This was just brutal.

Who Your Favorite Athletes Are Voting For - Does It Matter To You?

The Herald has an excellent article this morning about political activism among local professional athletes. Usually, athletes will stay away from the subject because (a) they don't want to spark any sort of clubhouse antipathy with different-minded teammates, (b) they don't particularly follow politics or current events all too much, and/or (c) they fear losing endorsements or fans with their public pronouncements about political issues.

A handful of South Florida professional athletes, however, have been willing to come out with their 2008 presidential preferences. On the Obama side, we have Heat players Alonzo Mourning (who has previously donated $25,000 to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) and Shawn Marion. For McCain, we have Dolphins kicker Jay Feely, Marlins outfielder Luis Gonzalez (who has actually stumped for the Arizona Senator), and pitcher Andrew Miller.

So I ask South Florida sports nation, knowing this information about some of your beloved athletes - does it matter to you? Do you think any more or less of Zo or Gonzo because of their professed political leanings?

Many will say, as with entertainers of any stripe like actors or musicians, that these people should simply "shut up and act/sing/play". These types will actually acquire vitriol for the entertainer who doesn't pledge allegiance to their vision of America, and may even launch boycotts against said entertainers. I probably fall on the milder side of this response. I strongly believe in freedom of speech, and definitely applaud any athlete who deigns to speak out on any matter of national/world consequence. But I will say, "I still love Athlete X, I just wish he wasn't a rabid member of Party Y." I will still attend his games, still cheer my heart out for him, still purchase his jersey. But there's that little bit of "Aw, shucks" in the back of my mind when I get to thinking about how "wrong" he may be politically.

What say you?

Marlins Take Down Webb!!!

The Marlins handed Brandon Webb his first loss of the season. Yes, the Brandon Webb who was 9-0 in 9 appearances. Undefeated no more!

It was a perfectly executed 3-1 win, with a little bit of everything. Matt Treanor laid down a superb bunt for a suicide squeeze, Cody Ross homered, and Luis Gonzalez singled home the insurance run.

Major credit must go to Ricky Nolasco, who turned in a spectacular start. He allowed just 1 run in 7 innings, leading the Marlins to one of their best wins of the season.

Brandon Webb: 9-1, and fish fried.

Greg Cote Answers 7 Questions

We at The South Florida Fan (TSFF) are indebted to Greg Cote for being so gracious with our questions. He answered seven of them in his chat today. I give them to you below, with an additional comment from us beneath:

1. Q: With the Hanley Ramirez signing, the Marlins' record, and the poor play from other South Florida teams, do you plan on giving the Marlins some more spirited coverage? They could really use your help!

A: Yeah I've written columns off a handful of games already, most of the spirited variety. Fish have until mid-July (Dolph training camp) to themselves in the market and must take advantage. But the starting pitching is starting to be the concern everyone thought it might be.

Comment: Cote and the Herald have started to jump on board. The Fish need to stay in contention through July to garner perpetual interest.

2. Q: What are your thoughts on the Heat's chances in the lottery tomorrow night? Is the organization doing anything superstitious?

A: No, no rabbit's feet. However Dwyane Wade's feet will be at the lottery. Dwyane just bought his mother a church; maybe he can bribe somebody. As it is the Heat has a 46.5% shot at the 1st or 2nd pick. It's a really bad system that needs reworking. I'll say that now so it doesn't look like I'm whining when the awful Heat get the fourth pick and a much better teams lands Derrick Rose.

Comment: Glad Dwyane Wade will be there. 46.5% for the top 2 picks really isn't all that good, so we should hold off on the Rose vs. Beasley comparisons.

3. Q: Do you support instant replay in baseball, and do you think it will be approved any time soon? Thanks!

A: I don't support instant replay for calls like balls and strikes, but would like to see it for plays such as whether a home run was fair or foul.

Comment: Agreed, except I'd also like plays at the bases to be reviewed.

4. Q: Who makes it bigger in Hollywood: Jason Taylor or Dwyane Wade?

A: Damn good question, which is another way of saying I have no answer. Like both of their futures outside of their sport, but if I had to buystock in one guy's non-sports stardom it might be Wade. His greater appeal to the hip-hop crowd opens a few doors JT might not have. Close call, though.

Comment: Cote has always been fascinated by Hollywood potential. I think Wade has the higher ceiling, but he'll need to regain his top form and stay healthy.

5. Q: Between the Marlins, Heat, Panthers, and Dolphins, who are the five most standup guys? Are they also your favorites?

A: Marlins, Fredi Gonzalez, Luis Gonzalez, Matt Treanor. Panthers, Olli Jokinen. Heat, Wade, Zo, Udonis. Dolphins, Taylor, Channing Crowder, with good early vibes from Tony Sparano. Will miss Zach Thomas. Yes the standup guys tend to be my favorites. The guys who don't duck when things are going wrong.

Comment: Excellent, thorough answer from Cote. Channing Crowder is a surprising inclusion (especially after his infamous "London" comments), but he is a Gator after all. Nice to see Tony Sparano getting some early love from the Miami media.

6. Q: Do you sometimes find yourself rooting against Lebron because he steals so much of Wade's attention (even when Wade won Finals MVP)? I couldn't help myself in the Celtics-Cavs series.

A: No, not really. That's cyclical. In June '06 it looked like Wade had overtaken LeBron. There's enough room for both, just as there was enough for Magic and Bird.

Comment: Apparently that's just me.

7. Q: With Le Batard on sabbatical, do you see yourself stepping in like a backup QB? You could be Steve Young to his Joe Montana...the Herald could have some tough choices.

A: I prefer to think of myself as Lou Gehrig stepping for Wally Pipp. Actually I've written more columns than Dan the past couple of years or so as he's cut back, so taking over this chat every Monday is probably the biggest change for me.

Comment: Any Lou Gehrig (of Columbia fame) reference gets major points at The South Florida Fan.

Thank you to all who participated, and special thanks to Greg Cote for accepting so many questions.

From the Jaws of Defeat

The Marlins were headed down a similar path, a gruesome pattern that had repeated itself for four straight miserable games. Here's the format:

1. Fall behind
2. Tie the game
3. Fall behind again
4. Almost come back, but lose in heartbreaking fashion

Trailing 3-2 in the 7th inning with the bottom of the lineup at the plate, I wasn't exactly confident. Then Gonzalez laces a single, Rabelo walks on 4 pitches (about all he's good for these days), and in steps Wes Helms. Yes, the same Wes Helms who the Marlins got for absolutely nothing. And he CRUSHES an 0-2 curve into the left field seats.

It was truly exhilarating. Back to winning ways, back to alone in first place, back to confidence. Was it Jay Warman's presence that turned things around? Was it Reader Paul's conclusion of his law school exams? Whatever it was, the Marlins got one back!

Marlins Are Doing It Without Key Starters

The Fish have now won 7 games in a row, along the way sweeping the Brewers and the Nats. They now find themselves at 23-14, and, as ASponge stated in the controversial previous post, they have the best record in the entire league, having passed the D-Backs today.

But they're doing it with a lineup that is missing Josh Willingham (sore back) at LF and Mike Jacobs (quad) at 1B. Willingham has been an absolutely essential contributor to the Marlins offense for the last two seasons. This season, Willingham was .341, .406, .637 with 6 HRs in just 25 games. Jacobs was batting .271 with 9 HRs, including a walk-off against the Pirates in the first week of the season.

Filling this gap in the lineup have been two veterans: Luis Gonzalez and Wes Helms. Gonzalez has been phenomenal in replacing Willingham, having come through in many crucial situations over the last week. In addition, Wes Helms has managed to cover the 1B role, providing excellent defensive play. He also hit a walk-off HR against the Brewers last week.

So if the Marlins are winning with these guys, just imagine how much offensive production there will be with the return of Willingham and Jacobs. Think about this lineup:

1. Alfredo Amezaga (quick with a solid OBP)
2. Jeremy Hermida (good average, consistent production)
3. Hanley Ramirez (Hanley is Hanley)
4. Mike Jacobs (Power will always be there)
5. Josh Willingham (great all-around player, clutch hitter)
6. Jorge Cantu (a pleasant surprise)
7. Dan Uggla (starting to really heat up, 11 HRs)
8. Matt Treanor (well..he's on a 5 game hitting streak)

If I were another team, I sure as hell wouldn't look forward to facing this killer squad.

Marlins Hitter Evaluations: 2nd Edition

After being prodded enough by Jay Warman and a few readers, I've decided to come out with the next edition of Marlins Hitter Evaluations. You may recall that in the first edition, I had some choice words for Jorge Cantu, while praising Robert Andino to no end. Things have evened out a bit, so prepare yourselves for a brunch-like meal of crow:

1. Hanley Ramirez: .333/.406/.622, 20R, 17RBI, 7HR, 8SB - The average has dipped, but the power has become explosive. Even more impressive are the 7 steals since my last edition. The best news? His defense has improved considerably from last year. My only concern is that he's becoming homer-happy, turning himself into an all-out slugger instead of the placesetter they need him to be.
Full Season Projection: 147R, 125RBI, 52HR, 59SB (Wow!)
Grade: A+ (Previous Grade: A+)

2. Dan Uggla: .262/.333/.488, 10R, 10RBI, 3HR, 8 Doubles - Uggla has been on an absolute tear over the last two weeks, benefiting in part from The Great Andino's bat. The OBP is steadily rising, while the power continues to show. This generation's "Charlie Hustle" is now on track for another excellent season.
Full Season Projection: 77R, 77RBI, 23HR, 61 Doubles
Grade: B+ (Previous Grade: D+)

3. Mike Jacobs: .277/.307/.614, 13R, 17RBI, 7HR, 7 Doubles - The much-discussed Mike Jacobs is rarely walking (4BB), but he's taking advantage of everything he swings at. Jacobs not only carries the distinction being the Marlins' top slugger, but he also hit the fastest HR in the majors this year (4/11/08 at Houston).
Full Season Projection: 100R, 130RBI, 54HR, 54 Doubles
Grade: A (Previous Grade: B-)

4. Josh Willingham: .329/.396/.659, 15R, 16RBI, 6HR, 5 Doubles, 2 Triples, 2SB - Willingham has been steadily and consistently mashing the ball. While Hanley and Jacobs have gotten all the attention, Willingham has been nothing short of phenomenal. Just look at those numbers!
Full Season Projection: 110R, 118RBI, 44HR, 15 Triples, 15SB
Grade: A+ (Previous Grade: C)

5. Jeremy Hermida: .246/.295/.421, 8R, 10RBI, 2HR, 4 Doubles - Hermida's totals are down because he missed the first week of the season (see projections). That being said, the OBP is disgusting for a player of his caliber. The power has been nice, but he needs to start lacing more singles and walking a whole lot more.
Full Season Projection: 88R, 110RBI, 22HR, 44 Doubles
Grade: C (Previous Grade: Was on DL)

6. Jorge Cantu: .325/.381/.532, 12R, 8RBI, 3HR, 7 Doubles, 2SB - WHAT??? Where the hell did this come from? I can't argue against this anymore. While it would be foolish to expect him to keep this up and his defense is still poor, this man deserves the highest accolades. By the way, crow has a bitter taste.
Full Season Projection: 96R, 64RBI, 24HR, 56 Doubles, 16SB
Grade: A+ (Previous Grade: F)

7. Alfredo Amezaga: .306/.424/.429, 8R, 5RBI, 4 Doubles, 10BB - The average and slugging have dropped, but that .424 OBP is stupendous! For a speedy singles hitter to get on base at that rate, all we can do is applaud. The defense has been terrific too. He has earned the nickname Amazin' Amezaga tenfold.
Full Season Projection: 64R, 40RBI, 32 Doubles, 80BB
Grade: A+ (Previous Grade: A+)

8. Cody Ross: .146/.163/.220, 3 Doubles - It's been a slump-ridden season for the likable Ross. I still believe he'll pull out of it (see our piece on his Wonder Boy moment). Don't be discouraged, codyross.org. We still believe!
Full Season Projection: 29 Doubles
Grade: F (Previous Grade: F)

9. Matt Treanor: .211/.268/.263, 3R, 2 Doubles, 1RBI - No matter how often Misti May gives it to him, the power just won't come (okay, that was wrong...I meant gives him encouragement). Even so, he's been an impenetrable fortress behind the plate, and his defense makes him worthy of a roster spot.
Full Season Projection: 41R, 14RBI, 27 Doubles
Grade: D+ (Previous Grade: D+)

10. Mike Rabelo: .216/.250/.324, 4R, 4RBI, 1HR - Another near waste of space in the lineup, at least Rabelo has a little power (just a little). Any gains he may have made there on Treanor, however, are quickly forfeited by his much inferior defense.
Full Season Projection: 55R, 55RBI, 14HR
Grade: D+ (Previous Grade: Was on DL)

Others:
Luis Gonzalez - Any drop in average has been more than made up for by his patient plate appearances in key situations, power, and salubrious clubhouse influence
Robert Andino - The Great Andino hasn't gotten much playing time, and his numbers are a lot more human. We'll still never forget his walkoff shot and stellar defense. Also, he gets credit for giving Dan Uggla his magic bat.
Wes Helms - Wes hasn't shown much yet, but we should give him time to work out of his slump

MVP: Hanley Ramirez/Josh Willingham (a tie)
Most Improved: Dan Uggla
LVP: Cody Ross
Most Likely to Improve: Cody Ross
Most Likely to Decline: Jorge Cantu
Most Likely to Break Out: Jeremy Hermida
Who to Watch: Dan Uggla

Time to Face Facts: The Marlins Are Good

This joyride of a season has now reached 14 games, and the Marlins sit atop the National League East at 9-5. Predicted by nearly every analyst to finish last, there were clearly some miscalculations. What were they?

1. Hermida and Jacobs: Contributor Mike had some choice words for Mike Jacobs this week. Regardless of what any scouts or sabermetric proponents say, the guy keeps hitting homeruns. I watched his ABs carefully tonight. Yes, he's been feasting on fastballs, but I maintain what I argued before; he set himself up for it. In his HR tonight, he patiently waited for a 2-0 count before getting the juice. Maybe his greatest gift is that he knows his limitations and bats around them.

Hermida, on the other hand, is finally achieving his early potential. When I think of a South Florida parallel, Olli Jokinen comes to mind. It's as if the light bulb went off last summer, and now everything is falling into place. Between Hanley, Hermida, and Jacobs, the Marlins have a bit of a murderer's row.

2. Supporting Cast: In 2003, a number of Marlins had career years. It seems to be happening here too, with the likes of Alfredo Amezaga, Jorge Cantu, Robert Andino, etc. Luis Gonzalez has fit in beautifully as the 4th OF (homered tonight), and with Wes Helms replacing Jason Wood, there isn't a weak spot on the offense.

3. Bullpen: The bullpen has been nothing short of Fish-tastic. So Marlin-ous has this group been, that they've completely covered for the starters to date. The bullpen hasn't failed in a single game, maintaining every lead they were given. If this keeps up, the Marlins could be showing some resemblance to the 2006 Angels.

I don't blame the experts for undervaluing the Marlins. Few could have seen this coming, but for the above reasons, we can now say the Marlins are officially a good team.

Marlins Weekly Hitter Evaluations

This probably won't become a weekly fixture. I may choose to review the team monthly as the numbers settle in a bit more, but the first week is easily the most exciting time for an evaluation.

Just ask all the fantasy baseball owners who follow their teams to the death in Week 1, then forget about them. Have a great week in April and you're immortalized! Have a great week in August and few notice. That's the way of first impressions. Anyway, on to the review.

1. Hanley Ramirez: .440/.533/.800, 7R, 5RBI, 2HR, 1SB - These numbers are ridonculous! Perhaps he could run more, but it's hard to argue about a lack of steals with this kind of production.
Full Season Projection: 162R, 116RBI, 46HR, 23SB (I think we'd take that)
Grade: A+

2. Dan Uggla: .143/.226/.357, 2HR, 3R, 4RBI 9K - Hidden behind Uggla's two moonshots has been a horrendous start. It's only a week, so let's not get carried away. His biggest problem is that he's swinging for the fences too much.
Full Season Projection: 46HR, 69R, 93RBI (Deceptive totals with Hanley on base so much)
Grade: D+

3. Mike Jacobs: .179/.207/.393, 2HR, 4R, 5RBI - The numbers don't look good, but if you can get past the first 3 games, you'll see he's been much better. With a walkoff shot and a grand slam to his name, we'll give him a pass.
Full Season Projection: 46HR, 93R, 116RBI (Not bad totals, but needs more hits and walks)
Grade: B-

4. Josh Willingham: .207/.233/.414, 2HR, 4R, 4RBI - Hermida joins Uggla and Jacobs in the category of great slugging/bad OBP. His hitting has also been timely, but he needs to get on base more.
Full Season Projection: 46HR, 93R, 93RBI (Decent totals)
Grade: C

5. Jorge Cantu: .241/.241/.276, 1R - Perhaps Cantu has seemed better because I expected nothing out of him. Bad defense and atrocious offense should have Helms, Andino, or the surging McPherson in his place soon. 0 walks doesn't help.
Full Season Projection: 0HR, 69R, 0RBI
Grade: F

6. Luis Gonzalez: .263/.333/.526, 1HR, 2Doubles - One of this season's surprises so far, geriatric Gonzo might be perfect in a starter/bench role, after all. I expected much worse.
Full Season Projection: 27HR, 54 doubles, 27R, 27RBI (Fine for limited PT)
Grade: A-

7. Cody Ross: .125/.125/.188 - He's been hurt, so let's not judge him too harshly. I know I join the good folks at codyross.org in hoping he picks things up.
Full Season Projection: 23 Doubles
Grade: F

8. Alfredo Amezaga: .357/.500/.500, 2R, 3RBI, 4BB - How about that OBP!!! If Amezaga can continue to draw walks at this rate, it won't matter when the average falls.
Full Season Projection: 46R, 69RBI, 92BB
Grade: A+

9. Matt Treanor: .235/.278/.235, 2R, 1RBI - Not exactly a great start, but his defense has been solid. No power here whatsoever.
Full Season Projection: 64R, 32RBI, 32SB (not happening)
Grade: D+

10. Paul Hoover: .429/.429/.571, 1R - Very limited appearances, but he's made the most of them at the plate. Unfortunately, he's been pretty bad behind the plate, which is why he'll need to keep hitting like this to stay on the squad.
Full Season Projection: 79R, 79 Doubles
Grade: A-

11. Robert Andino: .600/.600/.1800, 2HR, 2R, 3RBI - Yes, it's only 5 AB, but that's more than most regulars have done. The Great Andino is due for a start at 3B.
Full Season Projection: 64HR, 64R, 96RBI
Grade: A+

Others:
Brett Carroll - 1 for 8 wasn't going to keep him on the squad
Jason Wood - Nothing in 2 AB
Wes Helms - Just getting started

MVP: Hanley Ramirez
Most Improved: Robert Andino
LVP: Jorge Cantu
Most Likely to Improve: Cody Ross
Most Likely to Decline: Alfredo Amezaga
Most Likely to Break Out: Dan Uggla
Who to Watch: Jeremy Hermida

Marlins Opening Day Lineup Prediction

Here it comes, the moment you've all been waiting for: The 2008 DSponge Florida Marlins Lineup Prediction!!!!

Ok, perhaps I hyped that up just a bit too much. Nevertheless, here it comes:

1. Hanley Ramirez - SS
2. Dan Uggla - 2B
3. Josh Willingham - LF
4. Mike Jacobs - 1B
5. Luis Gonzalez - RF
6. Jorge Cantu - 3B
7. Cody Ross - CF
8. Matt Treanor - C
9. Mark Henrickson - P

Stellar lineup, isn't it! And when I say lineup, what I really mean is #1-4. After that the team is just horrific.

In all fairness, I assumed that Jeremy Hermida, still nursing an injury, will not be ready for opening day. If he were to be ready, he would probably land somewhere around the top of the lineup, possibly in the 3rd position. In his place is 74 year-old veteran Luis Gonzalez playing in right field, which is not his natural position (not that it matters; his fielding can't really get any worse).

Also, if Cody Ross is not ready for opening day, Alejandro De Aza would be in his place.

The #5-9 spots very likely could be different in that they are all equally satisfactory - so don't go betting anything on this prediction.

By the way, does anyone sense a tone of sarcasm in this blog entry?