Amazin' Amezaga Really is Amazing

No matter how low his batting average sinks, I'll always be an Alfredo Amezaga fan. It really can't be helped.

How do you not like everyone's favorite clubhouse buddy, the best fielder at every position, who takes pitches willingly and does whatever he's asked. Then he steps to the plate today after a 90 minute rain delay and blasts a home run.

If this 3-2 Marlins lead holds up, Ricky Nolasco will owe it all to Amezaga. Amazing, amazing stuff.

Alfredo Amezaga's Amazing Play in the Mexican League

There was a lot of hype about Amazin' Amezaga's famous play in the Mexican League two years ago. The hype, of course, was perpetrated by staunch advocates Rich Waltz and Tommy Hutton. I expected something underwhelming, disappointing even.

Then I saw it. Wow! For your enjoyment, here is the play (it's a little hard to see, but I think you can make it out):



Was that incredible or what?

Edinson Volquez: Beatable?

The Marlins have the tall order of battling rookie sensation-of-all-sensations Edinson Volquez, who has been virtually unhittable all season. The Marlins have had a little success in these situations (Jorge Campillo, for example), but it's going to be very very tough.

The good news is that the Marlins have seen him before, so they won't be stymied by anything novel. Interesting that Mark Hendrickson once again gets the call (and I think we all have less faith in him now). Let's look at how they performed the first time:

- Volquez went 6.0 innings, giving up 7 hits, ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 110 pitches

- The 7 hits: Hendrickson two singles, Cantu single, Uggla single, Amezaga single, Hermida single (so in other words, the Marlins ought to bat Hendrickson in the third spot)

- Hendrickson surrendered 4 ER, 8 hits, 5 BB in just 5.0 innings

Based on the above data, here's what we can conclude:

1. The Marlins need to maximize their hits, since doubles and homers are unlikely.

2. Mark Hendrickson MUST turn in a better showing (2-3 runs tops).

3. Volquez can labor a bit, so the Marlins might be able to tire him out by the 6th inning if they show patience at the plate.

Day Off Doesn't Lessen the Wounds

The Marlins had a much-needed day off today, but it did little to ameliorate the pain from last night's jaw-dropping stomach-punching ball-busting loss. Yes, I'm still pissed.

Alfredo Amezaga put the Marlins ahead 6-5 in the twelfth on a startling HR, only to have Justin Miller blow it (and blow it in horrendous fashion, I might add). Both Miller and Gregg were guilty of blown saves in the same game...quite simply, the Marlins let one slip away.

It is, after all, one game, but it gave the resurgent Mets some new hope and put the Phillies within .5 games. This weekend's series in Philadelphia will decide the leaderboard for the NL East. Should be exciting!

We'll have much more on the upcoming series, so keep following our coverage.

Jacque Jones a Marlin

That's the rumor, and it's coming from a number of places. Usually, the first words of confirmation involve the phrase, "Ken Rosenthal reports," and here it is. According to Rosenthal:

"Jones, 33, will take a physical Monday morning. He initially will report to extended spring training in Florida to get back into playing shape, according to one source, then return to the majors as a fourth outfielder and left-handed hitter off the bench."

Marlins Today also confirms the report, so count on it happening.

The best part of this news, especially for you Cody Ross fans, is that Jones is not expected to start. He may take a few games away from Amezaga and Ross, but I don't see that changing so quickly. Brett Carroll will certainly be the one sent down (was he even up? You'd never have known it), but what happens when Willingham comes back? That shouldn't be for a while, but it will happen (we hope).

I don't see the Marlins sending down Alfredo Amezaga under any circumstances, so the clear choice would appear to be Robert Andino. The problem, of course, is that Amezaga would become the backup infielder as well as potential starting center fielder, creating a number of pulsating headaches for Fredi in his lineup formations. This is something to keep a close eye on.

In the meantime, we welcome yet another bargain bench player to the friendly confines of South Florida.

Cody Ross is Heating Up

We know our friends at codyross.org got a real kick out of our Cody Ross Wonder Boy story. Just look at the comments.

Well it's time to give Cody Ross another look. Hampered by a bad knee and a shortened Spring, Cody Ross slumped through April. At times, we wondered if the guy known for his gentility would ever find his way out. Guess what? He has.

Let's look at his April vs. May numbers:

April: .159/.188/.227, 3 Doubles
May: .300/.440/.900, 4HR, 8RBI

Whoa! This, while Alfredo Amezaga struggles. It seems like Cody Ross is ready to assume the starting spot in CF. Based on these numbers, I would encourage the Fish NOT to sign Jacque Jones, because the answer is already there.

The only question left: Was that a Wonder Boy moment?

Marlins Hitter Evaluations: 2nd Edition

After being prodded enough by Jay Warman and a few readers, I've decided to come out with the next edition of Marlins Hitter Evaluations. You may recall that in the first edition, I had some choice words for Jorge Cantu, while praising Robert Andino to no end. Things have evened out a bit, so prepare yourselves for a brunch-like meal of crow:

1. Hanley Ramirez: .333/.406/.622, 20R, 17RBI, 7HR, 8SB - The average has dipped, but the power has become explosive. Even more impressive are the 7 steals since my last edition. The best news? His defense has improved considerably from last year. My only concern is that he's becoming homer-happy, turning himself into an all-out slugger instead of the placesetter they need him to be.
Full Season Projection: 147R, 125RBI, 52HR, 59SB (Wow!)
Grade: A+ (Previous Grade: A+)

2. Dan Uggla: .262/.333/.488, 10R, 10RBI, 3HR, 8 Doubles - Uggla has been on an absolute tear over the last two weeks, benefiting in part from The Great Andino's bat. The OBP is steadily rising, while the power continues to show. This generation's "Charlie Hustle" is now on track for another excellent season.
Full Season Projection: 77R, 77RBI, 23HR, 61 Doubles
Grade: B+ (Previous Grade: D+)

3. Mike Jacobs: .277/.307/.614, 13R, 17RBI, 7HR, 7 Doubles - The much-discussed Mike Jacobs is rarely walking (4BB), but he's taking advantage of everything he swings at. Jacobs not only carries the distinction being the Marlins' top slugger, but he also hit the fastest HR in the majors this year (4/11/08 at Houston).
Full Season Projection: 100R, 130RBI, 54HR, 54 Doubles
Grade: A (Previous Grade: B-)

4. Josh Willingham: .329/.396/.659, 15R, 16RBI, 6HR, 5 Doubles, 2 Triples, 2SB - Willingham has been steadily and consistently mashing the ball. While Hanley and Jacobs have gotten all the attention, Willingham has been nothing short of phenomenal. Just look at those numbers!
Full Season Projection: 110R, 118RBI, 44HR, 15 Triples, 15SB
Grade: A+ (Previous Grade: C)

5. Jeremy Hermida: .246/.295/.421, 8R, 10RBI, 2HR, 4 Doubles - Hermida's totals are down because he missed the first week of the season (see projections). That being said, the OBP is disgusting for a player of his caliber. The power has been nice, but he needs to start lacing more singles and walking a whole lot more.
Full Season Projection: 88R, 110RBI, 22HR, 44 Doubles
Grade: C (Previous Grade: Was on DL)

6. Jorge Cantu: .325/.381/.532, 12R, 8RBI, 3HR, 7 Doubles, 2SB - WHAT??? Where the hell did this come from? I can't argue against this anymore. While it would be foolish to expect him to keep this up and his defense is still poor, this man deserves the highest accolades. By the way, crow has a bitter taste.
Full Season Projection: 96R, 64RBI, 24HR, 56 Doubles, 16SB
Grade: A+ (Previous Grade: F)

7. Alfredo Amezaga: .306/.424/.429, 8R, 5RBI, 4 Doubles, 10BB - The average and slugging have dropped, but that .424 OBP is stupendous! For a speedy singles hitter to get on base at that rate, all we can do is applaud. The defense has been terrific too. He has earned the nickname Amazin' Amezaga tenfold.
Full Season Projection: 64R, 40RBI, 32 Doubles, 80BB
Grade: A+ (Previous Grade: A+)

8. Cody Ross: .146/.163/.220, 3 Doubles - It's been a slump-ridden season for the likable Ross. I still believe he'll pull out of it (see our piece on his Wonder Boy moment). Don't be discouraged, codyross.org. We still believe!
Full Season Projection: 29 Doubles
Grade: F (Previous Grade: F)

9. Matt Treanor: .211/.268/.263, 3R, 2 Doubles, 1RBI - No matter how often Misti May gives it to him, the power just won't come (okay, that was wrong...I meant gives him encouragement). Even so, he's been an impenetrable fortress behind the plate, and his defense makes him worthy of a roster spot.
Full Season Projection: 41R, 14RBI, 27 Doubles
Grade: D+ (Previous Grade: D+)

10. Mike Rabelo: .216/.250/.324, 4R, 4RBI, 1HR - Another near waste of space in the lineup, at least Rabelo has a little power (just a little). Any gains he may have made there on Treanor, however, are quickly forfeited by his much inferior defense.
Full Season Projection: 55R, 55RBI, 14HR
Grade: D+ (Previous Grade: Was on DL)

Others:
Luis Gonzalez - Any drop in average has been more than made up for by his patient plate appearances in key situations, power, and salubrious clubhouse influence
Robert Andino - The Great Andino hasn't gotten much playing time, and his numbers are a lot more human. We'll still never forget his walkoff shot and stellar defense. Also, he gets credit for giving Dan Uggla his magic bat.
Wes Helms - Wes hasn't shown much yet, but we should give him time to work out of his slump

MVP: Hanley Ramirez/Josh Willingham (a tie)
Most Improved: Dan Uggla
LVP: Cody Ross
Most Likely to Improve: Cody Ross
Most Likely to Decline: Jorge Cantu
Most Likely to Break Out: Jeremy Hermida
Who to Watch: Dan Uggla

Time to Face Facts: The Marlins Are Good

This joyride of a season has now reached 14 games, and the Marlins sit atop the National League East at 9-5. Predicted by nearly every analyst to finish last, there were clearly some miscalculations. What were they?

1. Hermida and Jacobs: Contributor Mike had some choice words for Mike Jacobs this week. Regardless of what any scouts or sabermetric proponents say, the guy keeps hitting homeruns. I watched his ABs carefully tonight. Yes, he's been feasting on fastballs, but I maintain what I argued before; he set himself up for it. In his HR tonight, he patiently waited for a 2-0 count before getting the juice. Maybe his greatest gift is that he knows his limitations and bats around them.

Hermida, on the other hand, is finally achieving his early potential. When I think of a South Florida parallel, Olli Jokinen comes to mind. It's as if the light bulb went off last summer, and now everything is falling into place. Between Hanley, Hermida, and Jacobs, the Marlins have a bit of a murderer's row.

2. Supporting Cast: In 2003, a number of Marlins had career years. It seems to be happening here too, with the likes of Alfredo Amezaga, Jorge Cantu, Robert Andino, etc. Luis Gonzalez has fit in beautifully as the 4th OF (homered tonight), and with Wes Helms replacing Jason Wood, there isn't a weak spot on the offense.

3. Bullpen: The bullpen has been nothing short of Fish-tastic. So Marlin-ous has this group been, that they've completely covered for the starters to date. The bullpen hasn't failed in a single game, maintaining every lead they were given. If this keeps up, the Marlins could be showing some resemblance to the 2006 Angels.

I don't blame the experts for undervaluing the Marlins. Few could have seen this coming, but for the above reasons, we can now say the Marlins are officially a good team.

Commence The Mike Jacobs Free-For-All

The start by the Marlins to the ‘08 season should be savored. The Fish are in first-place, but the success needs to be met with tempered enthusiasm. The team has a -14 run differential, and still has to compete with the supremely talented Mets, Braves, and Phillies. That said, it’s not uncommon to play winning baseball with some smoke, mirrors, and the fortuitous injury to a division foe’s ace or star bat.

And, being the optimist that I wish I was, the team is stacked with a deep crop of arms down on the farm, a high 1st round pick this year, a potential star in Cameron Maybin, and a group of young assets already on the 40-man roster.

And there is a group of players who will become expendable come July and in December: The arbitration-eligibles and the upcoming free agents.

• Kevin Gregg
• Luis Gonzalez
• Mark Hendrickson
• Sergio Mitre
• Alfredo Amezega
• Justin Miller
• Jorge Cantu
• Hanley Ramírez
• Dan Uggla
• Dallas McPherson
• Scott Olsen
• Josh Willingham
• Jeremy Hermida
• Mike Jacobs

Ramírez, Uggla, McPherson, Olsen, Hermida, and Jacobs will all be entering their first year of arbitration, so even Hanley, Uggla, and Hermida will be cheap enough to be members of the ’09 Marlins. The rest will certainly be cheap enough to keep, too; but should they be moved? The name that jumps out to me is Mike Jacobs. Jacobs, Pedro’s former BFF, along with the late Nelson de la Rosa (RIP), is off to a hot start. He’s batting .298, .951 OPS, and 5 HRs in only 47 ABs. Any statistical argument at this point is premature due to the small sample size. But if he can keep up this hot start, his value come late June or July may be at its highest. This is because Jacobs is a very flawed player, overall.

First, the reasons why he may appear to some GMs as a valuable pickup would be his age (27), his power (53 career HRs in only 1042 ABs), and his handedness (lefty hitting). The key reason, though, is his contract. Arbitration eligible next year, Jacobs will likely earn $1.25MM-$2.00MM in 2009 depending on his 2008 season.

It's simply too much for a player on the Marlins with the holes in his swing that Jacobs has. His swing is long, and the evidence backs it up. Jacobs’ power is entirely fastball power; he hits an abysmal .063 against LHP curveballs, and .129 against sliders from lefties. And the scariest part is how much he hedges on the fastball, cheating his swing. His swing rate on 2-0 counts is 52%, which is much higher than the average player. For reference, even Adam Dunn, one of the premier fastball sluggers, swings 38% of the time on 2-0 counts; and Andruw Jones, who has been cheating on fastballs for the bulk of his career, is at 42%.

Jacobs certainly makes sense for the Marlins this year; he’s cheap ($395,000), mostly, but should produce another 100 OPS+ season and play serviceable defense. Hopefully Michael Hill will strike, though, while the perceived value of Jacobs remains high.

The Case Against Uggla

Dan Uggla is one of the top second basemen in the National League. His power numbers and improved defensive play (forget that Sunday error) come at a low price that is perfectly "cost effective" for the notoriously thrifty Marlins.

Beginning with Joe Girardi in 2006 and continuing with Fredi Gonzalez last year and early on this season, Dan Uggla has usually batted second in the Marlins' lineup. Despite Uggla's numerous talents on the diamond, I don't think batting second is among them.

Uggla has proven to us all that he loves to hit the long ball. Chicks dig it, fans love it, owners pay for it, so why not? However, at the cost of all those big, manly swings are lots and lots of strikeouts (123 in '06, 167 in '07, a team-leading 14 already this season). Not a quality one desires in the #2 spot in the lineup, a spot that requires taking pitches to allow speedster Hanley Ramirez to swipe second base and hitting with two strikes.

Batting behind the most fearsome hitter in the lineup (Ramirez) also does not suit Uggla. Without the protection of Miguel Cabrera, pitchers this season have worked around and even intentionally walked Ramirez to get to Uggla. He, for the most part, has struggled in those situations.

As Uggla's average and OBP have dipped since his All-Star rookie season, so has his average with runners in scoring position. And as the Marlins continue to live and die by the home run, it makes little sense to put someone so willing to do so in a spot in the lineup that requires patience and situational hitting.

With every first inning strikeout I plead with Fredi Gonzalez from my right field bleacher seat to move Uggla down in the order where he can swing for the fences all he wants. Let him bat sixth where his homers are more likely to come with men on base and his strikeouts can be more tolerable.

But who will bat second? It seems that in the short term the Marlins have settled on amazin' little Alfredo Amezaga as their center fielder against right handed pitching. Amezaga demonstrates great bat control, a good-eye and the ability to put the ball in play with two strikes. He fanned only 46 times in 334 at bats in 2007. In the early part of this season he has a .485 OPB while Uggla struggles.

Against lefties let Uggla or Jorge Cantu or even Mike Rabelo bat second. But against righties, Uggla doesn't belong up there in the order. Especially with his slow start to the season, do Uggla a favor, take the pressure off, and let him swing away care-free.

Case closed.

Marlins Power Their Way to Win

In Houston, the Marlins defeated the Astros 10-6 tonight, marking their 4th straight win. A combination of Hermida (2), Rabelo, Cantu, Ramirez, and Jacobs produced a franchise record 6 HRs in the game for the Fish.

How have the Marlins been so dominant you ask? (You should know my answer considering the previous statistic and the headline of the post. I might just be hinting at something.)

Well, it has certainly not been the pitching (relief pitching excluded).

It has been the hitting - not just from the main guys, but from the lesser contributers such as Cantu and Amezaga. More specifically, though, the Marlins are 7-3 and in first place in the NL East because they have tremendous power and a flare for the long ball.

That's right. Thanks to Mike Jacobs, Jeremy Hermida, Josh Willingham, Dan Uggla, Hanley Ramirez, and the rest, the Marlins lead the league in Home Runs as of 4/12/08. They are tied for 1st with the 7-2, Major League best, Arizona Diamondbacks at 20 HRs. Thats pretty good company.

So can they keep it up?

Who knows. One thing is for certain - the team is out-performing all expectations.

Marlins Weekly Hitter Evaluations

This probably won't become a weekly fixture. I may choose to review the team monthly as the numbers settle in a bit more, but the first week is easily the most exciting time for an evaluation.

Just ask all the fantasy baseball owners who follow their teams to the death in Week 1, then forget about them. Have a great week in April and you're immortalized! Have a great week in August and few notice. That's the way of first impressions. Anyway, on to the review.

1. Hanley Ramirez: .440/.533/.800, 7R, 5RBI, 2HR, 1SB - These numbers are ridonculous! Perhaps he could run more, but it's hard to argue about a lack of steals with this kind of production.
Full Season Projection: 162R, 116RBI, 46HR, 23SB (I think we'd take that)
Grade: A+

2. Dan Uggla: .143/.226/.357, 2HR, 3R, 4RBI 9K - Hidden behind Uggla's two moonshots has been a horrendous start. It's only a week, so let's not get carried away. His biggest problem is that he's swinging for the fences too much.
Full Season Projection: 46HR, 69R, 93RBI (Deceptive totals with Hanley on base so much)
Grade: D+

3. Mike Jacobs: .179/.207/.393, 2HR, 4R, 5RBI - The numbers don't look good, but if you can get past the first 3 games, you'll see he's been much better. With a walkoff shot and a grand slam to his name, we'll give him a pass.
Full Season Projection: 46HR, 93R, 116RBI (Not bad totals, but needs more hits and walks)
Grade: B-

4. Josh Willingham: .207/.233/.414, 2HR, 4R, 4RBI - Hermida joins Uggla and Jacobs in the category of great slugging/bad OBP. His hitting has also been timely, but he needs to get on base more.
Full Season Projection: 46HR, 93R, 93RBI (Decent totals)
Grade: C

5. Jorge Cantu: .241/.241/.276, 1R - Perhaps Cantu has seemed better because I expected nothing out of him. Bad defense and atrocious offense should have Helms, Andino, or the surging McPherson in his place soon. 0 walks doesn't help.
Full Season Projection: 0HR, 69R, 0RBI
Grade: F

6. Luis Gonzalez: .263/.333/.526, 1HR, 2Doubles - One of this season's surprises so far, geriatric Gonzo might be perfect in a starter/bench role, after all. I expected much worse.
Full Season Projection: 27HR, 54 doubles, 27R, 27RBI (Fine for limited PT)
Grade: A-

7. Cody Ross: .125/.125/.188 - He's been hurt, so let's not judge him too harshly. I know I join the good folks at codyross.org in hoping he picks things up.
Full Season Projection: 23 Doubles
Grade: F

8. Alfredo Amezaga: .357/.500/.500, 2R, 3RBI, 4BB - How about that OBP!!! If Amezaga can continue to draw walks at this rate, it won't matter when the average falls.
Full Season Projection: 46R, 69RBI, 92BB
Grade: A+

9. Matt Treanor: .235/.278/.235, 2R, 1RBI - Not exactly a great start, but his defense has been solid. No power here whatsoever.
Full Season Projection: 64R, 32RBI, 32SB (not happening)
Grade: D+

10. Paul Hoover: .429/.429/.571, 1R - Very limited appearances, but he's made the most of them at the plate. Unfortunately, he's been pretty bad behind the plate, which is why he'll need to keep hitting like this to stay on the squad.
Full Season Projection: 79R, 79 Doubles
Grade: A-

11. Robert Andino: .600/.600/.1800, 2HR, 2R, 3RBI - Yes, it's only 5 AB, but that's more than most regulars have done. The Great Andino is due for a start at 3B.
Full Season Projection: 64HR, 64R, 96RBI
Grade: A+

Others:
Brett Carroll - 1 for 8 wasn't going to keep him on the squad
Jason Wood - Nothing in 2 AB
Wes Helms - Just getting started

MVP: Hanley Ramirez
Most Improved: Robert Andino
LVP: Jorge Cantu
Most Likely to Improve: Cody Ross
Most Likely to Decline: Alfredo Amezaga
Most Likely to Break Out: Dan Uggla
Who to Watch: Jeremy Hermida

Cody Ross Gets a Pass

I've flip-flopped on Cody Ross like the Democrats on NAFTA (not saying I disapprove). After first advocating him as a no-brainer for the CF job, I grew critical during my Opening Day In-Game Blog, especially of his suspect fielding.

Today, I was reminded of Cody Ross's medical limitations by the wonderful Craig of Fish Stripes. The fact is, he's playing hurt, and he should show considerable improvement in the field and at the plate once healed. In the meantime, good ole' Amezaga will be starting against righties. I'm not sure how I feel about that, but I'd gladly take Amezaga over Cameron Maybin, who needs to stay down at AA.

Does Amazin' Amezaga have anything to say about this?

Marlins Center Field Race Coming to a Close

It would appear that the race for the center field position on the Florida Marlins is becoming more clear. On Tuesday the Marlins optioned Cameron Maybin to Double-A Carolina thereby eliminating him from contention for the highly prestgious position. The young Maybin (sent over from Detroit in the deal with Andrew Miller) was batting an awful .188 in Spring Training but certainly has a bright future in baseball. Cody Ross will most likely start on opening day against the Mets only because lefty Johan Santana is the starter . Ross and Alejandro De Aza appear to be the front-runners for center but Alfredo Amezaga could potentially get some starts over the course of the season.

My prediction is that the Marlins will shuffle the position between the De Aza, Ross, and Amezaga with De Aza and Ross receiving the majority of the starts depending on the opposing pitcher.