Opposite Coasts, Opposite Direction

On the Atlantic side of things, the Marlins are struggling like, well, like fish out of water. Florida was once again rocked by the Rockies (I'm full of the obvious puns tonight!), this time by the score of 12-6. A common thread in many of these recent losses is a lack of longevity in starting pitching. Tonight's starter, Ryan Tucker, last just 4 innings. He gave up 8 runs on 7 hits, with 6 of those runs coming in his final inning. This marks a Major League record 263rd straight game without a complete game pitched. To make matters worse, one of the Marlins more reliable relievers, Justin Miller, was put on the 15 day DL earlier today. Closer Kevin Gregg has had a rough stretch, failing in his last 2 attempts to record a save. On the season, Gregg is 15 of 21. The Marlins are going to have to find longer starts from someone in the rotation if they hope to keep pace.

Meanwhile, on the other coast (of Florida), the Rays have the best record in baseball. With their win over the Royals tonight, Tampa extended its winning streak to 6, and its lead in the AL East is at 4 games. The Rays are 9-1 in their last 10. Perhaps the most telling stat is their home record, 35-13. The friendly confines of the Trop have been... devilish... to their opponents. The Rays, as opposed to their Floridian counterparts, have 3 pitchers who have complete games this season, including 3 time CG-er, James Shields. Closer Troy Percival, although currently on the DL, is saving games at a much better clip (19 of 21). Quality pitching = wins.

The Marlins are still only 3.5 games back of the Phils, but now sit just one game over .500. To make things worse, the Mets are starting to play well. They are just one game behind the Fish after their win against the Phillies. The Fish continue their tour of the NL west with 1 more against the Rockies tomorrow, and then a trip to lowly San Diego where they need to make a statement. A 4 game series against the struggling Dodgers offers more opportunities to turn things around before the All-Star break. Oh yeah, the first series after the break is at home against the Phillies.

The Rays lead the highly financed AL East by 4 games, and are playing like a team that will be there in October. Tampa still has 2 more against the Royals, then a quick 2 game set with at Yankee Stadium, followed by a 3 game series in Cleveland against another surprisingly wallowing team in the Indians. They won't see Boston or New York again until the first week in September.

With one week to go before the break, both clubs have opportunities against lesser opponents to show that they are planning to play meaningful baseball well into September. Hopefully, Florida will have multiple representation in October.

Day Off Doesn't Lessen the Wounds

The Marlins had a much-needed day off today, but it did little to ameliorate the pain from last night's jaw-dropping stomach-punching ball-busting loss. Yes, I'm still pissed.

Alfredo Amezaga put the Marlins ahead 6-5 in the twelfth on a startling HR, only to have Justin Miller blow it (and blow it in horrendous fashion, I might add). Both Miller and Gregg were guilty of blown saves in the same game...quite simply, the Marlins let one slip away.

It is, after all, one game, but it gave the resurgent Mets some new hope and put the Phillies within .5 games. This weekend's series in Philadelphia will decide the leaderboard for the NL East. Should be exciting!

We'll have much more on the upcoming series, so keep following our coverage.

Kevin Gregg = LVP of the Week

The Marlins were swept by the Dodgers today, their fragile grip on the NL East lead slipping. It was another close game, in which Badenhop pitched surprisingly well, but the bullpen (yes, that bullpen Buster Olney praised today) coughed up the second game of the series.

Actually, it would be unfair to lay the blame on the entire bullpen when there was one culprit: Kevin Gregg. For the second time in three games, Fredi Gonzalez chose Gregg for the top of the 9th in a tie game. He lost both attempts.

The control problems that have plagued him all season finally came back to bite him. He opened the inning by walking Rafael Furcal, a move the Dodgers announcers jubilantly described as the cardinal sin (especially for a player of Furcal's speed). A Juan Pierre sac bunt and Matt Kemp bloop single later, and it was 4-3 Dodgers. Misplays in the field made it 5-3, but Gregg had already done his damage.

Is it time to consider replacing Gregg? Renyel Pinto has probably been the most dependable, but his wildness is also disconcerting. Perhaps Matt Lindstrom or Justin Miller?

When I watched Saito hurl some filthy stuff by the Fish hitters to close the game, I knew the definition of a real closer. A real closer doesn't walk the leadoff hitter, that's for sure.

Commence The Mike Jacobs Free-For-All

The start by the Marlins to the ‘08 season should be savored. The Fish are in first-place, but the success needs to be met with tempered enthusiasm. The team has a -14 run differential, and still has to compete with the supremely talented Mets, Braves, and Phillies. That said, it’s not uncommon to play winning baseball with some smoke, mirrors, and the fortuitous injury to a division foe’s ace or star bat.

And, being the optimist that I wish I was, the team is stacked with a deep crop of arms down on the farm, a high 1st round pick this year, a potential star in Cameron Maybin, and a group of young assets already on the 40-man roster.

And there is a group of players who will become expendable come July and in December: The arbitration-eligibles and the upcoming free agents.

• Kevin Gregg
• Luis Gonzalez
• Mark Hendrickson
• Sergio Mitre
• Alfredo Amezega
• Justin Miller
• Jorge Cantu
• Hanley Ramírez
• Dan Uggla
• Dallas McPherson
• Scott Olsen
• Josh Willingham
• Jeremy Hermida
• Mike Jacobs

Ramírez, Uggla, McPherson, Olsen, Hermida, and Jacobs will all be entering their first year of arbitration, so even Hanley, Uggla, and Hermida will be cheap enough to be members of the ’09 Marlins. The rest will certainly be cheap enough to keep, too; but should they be moved? The name that jumps out to me is Mike Jacobs. Jacobs, Pedro’s former BFF, along with the late Nelson de la Rosa (RIP), is off to a hot start. He’s batting .298, .951 OPS, and 5 HRs in only 47 ABs. Any statistical argument at this point is premature due to the small sample size. But if he can keep up this hot start, his value come late June or July may be at its highest. This is because Jacobs is a very flawed player, overall.

First, the reasons why he may appear to some GMs as a valuable pickup would be his age (27), his power (53 career HRs in only 1042 ABs), and his handedness (lefty hitting). The key reason, though, is his contract. Arbitration eligible next year, Jacobs will likely earn $1.25MM-$2.00MM in 2009 depending on his 2008 season.

It's simply too much for a player on the Marlins with the holes in his swing that Jacobs has. His swing is long, and the evidence backs it up. Jacobs’ power is entirely fastball power; he hits an abysmal .063 against LHP curveballs, and .129 against sliders from lefties. And the scariest part is how much he hedges on the fastball, cheating his swing. His swing rate on 2-0 counts is 52%, which is much higher than the average player. For reference, even Adam Dunn, one of the premier fastball sluggers, swings 38% of the time on 2-0 counts; and Andruw Jones, who has been cheating on fastballs for the bulk of his career, is at 42%.

Jacobs certainly makes sense for the Marlins this year; he’s cheap ($395,000), mostly, but should produce another 100 OPS+ season and play serviceable defense. Hopefully Michael Hill will strike, though, while the perceived value of Jacobs remains high.