Will the Tigers Rue the Day?

It is an interesting question. One that was laughable over the winter and has become more and more serious as this strange season has progressed.

Will the Tigers rue the day that they traded Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, Mike Rabelo, Burke Badenhop, Eulogio De la Cruz and Dallas Trahern for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis? I think they already do.

The pitching-needy Tigers sent a wildly ineffective Willis to the minors today. Cabrera just keeps eating his way towards worsening numbers and more games at DH. Slow-footed Detroit is the biggest bust in baseball.

Meanwhile, without Cabrera the Marlins are better offensively than they were a year ago (the Fish lead MLB in homers). They replaced Willis, the spark of 2003's magical run, with Miller, who even in his youthful inconsistency has been eons better than the man-who-used-to-be-called-the-D-Train this season. The potential of Miller, Maybin, De la Cruz and Badenhop outshine Cabrera and Willis at this point.

With tonight's win the Marlins are six games over .500 and three games out of first. The Tigers wallow at 27-37, 10 games behind the surging White Sox in the AL Central.

Would Cabrera (.270/8 HR/36 RBI) and Willis (0-1/10.32 ERA/21 BB/5 K) have been this bad had they remained in South Florida? Would the Marlins be so close to the top of the league with the moody Miggy and off-track D-Train still in town?

Sure, Cabrera is underachieving as his weight and batting average remain in far-too-close proximity. He probably will regain some semblance of his old self. No, Dontrelle isn't this bad, although his final days in teal weren't so pretty either. But the trade that was supposed to sink the Marlins to the NL seafloor and boost the Tigers to the World Series isn't delivering expected results.

I wonder if Detroit regrets it already.

Good day to be a Rays fan, another slap in the face to Marlins fans

According to Fox Sports, the Rays are about to sign uber 3B prospect Evan Longoria to a long term deal. The deal is believed to be in the 6 year, $17mil range and there would be options for them to buy out his last 2 seasons of arbitration. A fantastic deal from both sides and it just makes you sigh as a Marlins fan. When you see guys like Troy Tulowitzki, Fausto Carmona, Curtis Granderson, and Grady Sizemore (not to mention many other young stars) get these reasonably cheap long term deals you feel like punching things.

I don't know if it's more the Marlins don't believe in this kind of thing (which would be beyond idiotic) or that they don't want to shell out money (sigh) but we could have signed Hanley to a 6-7 year deal in the $30-35mil range after his rookie year and we did nothing. Now he's en route to having a HUGE deal at some point when he's done with arbitration. Maybe we're waiting till Opening Day in the new park and Hanley will be still be locked up, but it's definitely disconcerning.

At this point, Hanley is not going to go for a smaller deal. What they need to do though is try and lock up Jeremy Hermida now and when Cam Maybin comes up, him too. Those are the 2 "musts" I see right now. Uggla? Absolutely not. I like Josh Willingham alot but by the time he starts making real time money, he'll be 30-31 and there probably won't be room for him on this team anyway. Same goes for Jake.

Here's a breakdown of some of the contracts listed above.

Commence The Mike Jacobs Free-For-All

The start by the Marlins to the ‘08 season should be savored. The Fish are in first-place, but the success needs to be met with tempered enthusiasm. The team has a -14 run differential, and still has to compete with the supremely talented Mets, Braves, and Phillies. That said, it’s not uncommon to play winning baseball with some smoke, mirrors, and the fortuitous injury to a division foe’s ace or star bat.

And, being the optimist that I wish I was, the team is stacked with a deep crop of arms down on the farm, a high 1st round pick this year, a potential star in Cameron Maybin, and a group of young assets already on the 40-man roster.

And there is a group of players who will become expendable come July and in December: The arbitration-eligibles and the upcoming free agents.

• Kevin Gregg
• Luis Gonzalez
• Mark Hendrickson
• Sergio Mitre
• Alfredo Amezega
• Justin Miller
• Jorge Cantu
• Hanley Ramírez
• Dan Uggla
• Dallas McPherson
• Scott Olsen
• Josh Willingham
• Jeremy Hermida
• Mike Jacobs

Ramírez, Uggla, McPherson, Olsen, Hermida, and Jacobs will all be entering their first year of arbitration, so even Hanley, Uggla, and Hermida will be cheap enough to be members of the ’09 Marlins. The rest will certainly be cheap enough to keep, too; but should they be moved? The name that jumps out to me is Mike Jacobs. Jacobs, Pedro’s former BFF, along with the late Nelson de la Rosa (RIP), is off to a hot start. He’s batting .298, .951 OPS, and 5 HRs in only 47 ABs. Any statistical argument at this point is premature due to the small sample size. But if he can keep up this hot start, his value come late June or July may be at its highest. This is because Jacobs is a very flawed player, overall.

First, the reasons why he may appear to some GMs as a valuable pickup would be his age (27), his power (53 career HRs in only 1042 ABs), and his handedness (lefty hitting). The key reason, though, is his contract. Arbitration eligible next year, Jacobs will likely earn $1.25MM-$2.00MM in 2009 depending on his 2008 season.

It's simply too much for a player on the Marlins with the holes in his swing that Jacobs has. His swing is long, and the evidence backs it up. Jacobs’ power is entirely fastball power; he hits an abysmal .063 against LHP curveballs, and .129 against sliders from lefties. And the scariest part is how much he hedges on the fastball, cheating his swing. His swing rate on 2-0 counts is 52%, which is much higher than the average player. For reference, even Adam Dunn, one of the premier fastball sluggers, swings 38% of the time on 2-0 counts; and Andruw Jones, who has been cheating on fastballs for the bulk of his career, is at 42%.

Jacobs certainly makes sense for the Marlins this year; he’s cheap ($395,000), mostly, but should produce another 100 OPS+ season and play serviceable defense. Hopefully Michael Hill will strike, though, while the perceived value of Jacobs remains high.

Which South Florida Sports Franchise Will Improve First?

Today, Dave Hyde of the Sun Sentinel found a little optimism within a miserable question: Which weathered franchise in South Florida will improve first? This is his order:

1. Heat
2. Marlins
3. Dolphins
4. Panthers

Before I give my opinion, let me just say that the Panthers were on the cusp of the playoffs, and the Marlins are currently in first place. It's way too early to call the Marlins a success, but for the sake of argument, let's focus on the 2009 season. Here's my order:

1. Heat: I agree with Dave Hyde here. The only thing stopping the Heat from being a playoff team is Dwyane Wade's health. As I've said before on this blog, it's easy to forget just how dominant Wade was when healthy. Throw in Marion/FA and an early draft pick (Michael Beasley or Derrick Rose), and this team is suddenly good again. I also can't imagine the defensive effort being any worse. In a renewed season, the Heat will rediscover their will to play hard on both ends of the floor.

2. Marlins: Again, Dave Hyde and I are on the same page. I was almost tempted to put them first, but I never underestimate Dwyane Wade. Imagine this current lineup, supported by a monster staff of Josh Johnson, Annibal Sanchez, Chris Volstad, Gaby Hernandez, Scott Olsen, and refined versions of Andrew Miller, Ricky Nolasco, and Rick Vanden Hurk. They'll all be back. Oh, and Cameron Maybin just might be starring in center field too. The future is bright for the Marlins.

3. Panthers: This is where Hyde and I disagree. The Panthers showed tremendous promise at the end of the year. David Booth is clearly a star in the making, and there are a number of other young players on the verge of breaking out. If they can retain Olli Jokinen (a player Mr. Hyde conveniently left out), they'll be a playoff team for certain.

4. Dolphins: I just don't see much happening this year, even under strong management. Is John Beck the starting QB? I like the 'Fins chances of pulling off 7 or 8 wins, but this isn't a contending team yet (of course, we really need to see what happens in the Draft first to truly determine this). Now as for the 2009-10 season? That's a whole other story. Also on the Dolphins' side: in no other league do teams complete turnarounds like the NFL.

Now that I've put this all together, I'm feeling quite giddy about our sports teams down here. Things may have hit rock bottom, but they'll be fine and dandy soon enough. I'll leave you with projected records:

2008-09 Heat: 47-35, 5th seed
2009 Marlins: 88-74, contend for Wild Card
2008-09 Panthers: 41-30-11 (93 points) - 7th seed
2008-09 Dolphins: 7-9

Beat the Streak: Cameron Maybin

Disappointing night last night for our BtS. Gaby Sanchez didn't see many pitches to hit last night, as he went 0 for 2 with 2 walks. Carolina did win the game, so that's all that matters right? Wrong, I'm devastated. Looking to get back to our hitting streak ways tonight with Marlins uber prospect Cameron Maybin. He comes into tonight hitting .346/.485/.654 with 2 homeruns in 26 at bats. Something to keep an eye out for his Maybin's strikeout totals. Right now he has 11, and his last 3 at bats have all resulted via the K. Then again, if he walks 7 times to every 11 strikeouts, we'll take that any day of the week. Tonight Cam and the Mudcats will take on Montgomery Biscuits right-hander Richard De Los Santos. Maybin is 8 for 24 off righties on the young season. Rick VandenHurk may be making his 2008 Mudcats debut tonight.

Cody Ross Gets a Pass

I've flip-flopped on Cody Ross like the Democrats on NAFTA (not saying I disapprove). After first advocating him as a no-brainer for the CF job, I grew critical during my Opening Day In-Game Blog, especially of his suspect fielding.

Today, I was reminded of Cody Ross's medical limitations by the wonderful Craig of Fish Stripes. The fact is, he's playing hurt, and he should show considerable improvement in the field and at the plate once healed. In the meantime, good ole' Amezaga will be starting against righties. I'm not sure how I feel about that, but I'd gladly take Amezaga over Cameron Maybin, who needs to stay down at AA.

Does Amazin' Amezaga have anything to say about this?

Marlins Center Field Race Coming to a Close

It would appear that the race for the center field position on the Florida Marlins is becoming more clear. On Tuesday the Marlins optioned Cameron Maybin to Double-A Carolina thereby eliminating him from contention for the highly prestgious position. The young Maybin (sent over from Detroit in the deal with Andrew Miller) was batting an awful .188 in Spring Training but certainly has a bright future in baseball. Cody Ross will most likely start on opening day against the Mets only because lefty Johan Santana is the starter . Ross and Alejandro De Aza appear to be the front-runners for center but Alfredo Amezaga could potentially get some starts over the course of the season.

My prediction is that the Marlins will shuffle the position between the De Aza, Ross, and Amezaga with De Aza and Ross receiving the majority of the starts depending on the opposing pitcher.