Dolphins Expectations

According to Phinsider, the first over/under on the Dolphins season is 5.5 wins. That comes from sportsbook.com, which pits the 'Fins as second lowest in expectations (Atlanta is at 4.5).

I've been ridiculed by my own colleagues at The South Florida Fan, but I've been mentioning the word "playoffs" lately. I'm not backing down. Call me a hometown optimist, but I really like what Parcells has done with this squad.

My biggest concern is obviously the QB position where the perenially mediocre Josh McCown, uncertain John Beck, and completely inexperienced Chad Henne will have to perform well. Of course, it helps when you have a monster like Jake Long blocking for you.

Do I really think the 'Fins are going to the playoffs? No. But I see 7 wins, and that, my friends, is OVER. At least according to this prognosticator, go out and bet OVER on the Dolphins (no death threats accepted should it happen to be poor advice).

YOUR thoughts on the Dolphins draft....

As for MY view of the draft:

J Long - Safest pick but also the biggest need! Does not make mistakes (penalties/sacks) and that is a Parcells kind of guy.

P Merling - Was projected as a 1st rd pick w/o the hernia. He is the first of MANY Dolphin picks this year that beg the question: The problem is figuring out where he fits? DE?OLB? THAT is where I have to trust Parcells.

C Henne - Good value! I hope both he AND Beck become quality QB's so we have some depth (or, better yet, trade fodder for the future). Tough kid with intangibles but he doesn't stand out in any area.

K Langford - Another pick that experts love but is he the next Jason Taylor or the next Matt Roth? Sounds like he can rush the passer but does nothing to anchor the end against the run.

S Murphy - Are we supposed to believe he is our starting LG? I think Miami wanted Greco and settled for Murphy. This pick surprised me because he is known for his finesse, not power, which makes him the Anti-Parcells guy! Also, am I supposed to be impressed that his father is Dale Murphy?

J Parmele - I like this pick because I don't trust our R&R Team (Ricky & Ronnie) to be fully healthy by training camp. I was surprised we got rid of Booker, since he was a PLAYMAKER whenever he got on the field, but we needed a third every down back. I believe that Parmalee has the ability to get the 3.5-4.0 yards/carry until the starters are healthy. (I don't believe Brown will be 100% till 2009.)

D Thomas - Major project that hit a fast food worker for slow service? It's the 6th rd but this just doesn't seem like a Parcells guy (bad character/major project).

L Hilliard - New Fullback or poor man's HB? (BTW, I thought Parcells didn't like small school players: 4 picks were from smaller schools)

L Dotson - NT project? 7th rd pick that I am not going to pretend that I know anything about.

I guess, in summary, what I am saying is that I like this draft only because I want to give Parcells the benefit of the doubt. I want to believe that this jumble of players will strengthen our roster. I wish we had traded JT and got some decent value (either in 2008 or 2009 draft) and I hope we sign a couple of impact college FA (DJ Hall, Highsmith, Robertson, and/or Henderson).


Matt

1 Hour Left.

The NFL Draft begins in one hour. Let's start this off by talking about Miami's first pick, Offensive Tackle Jake Long.

Why he's #1: 6'7" 315 lbs. Benches 225 37 times. 7.44 3-cone. 27.5 Vertical. 32 7/8 arm length. 10 1/4 hands. Basically, he's a beast. In his entire college career he allowed 2 sacks and had 2 penalties. He even remembers when the sacks were, which shows that he obsesses over things like that. Jake Long is tenacious and finishes every play, he's the kind of guy that will pancake you, then if you try to get up, he'll pancake you again. Big 10 Offensive Lineman of the year for two years in a row. Beat Joe Thomas out of the award as a junior. Smart kid, hard worker, a "Parcells guy."

Why the Dolphins need him: Championship teams begin with the offensive line, and end with the defensive line. People can talk about RBs and QBs and WRs all they want, but without strong trench play, it doesn't matter how good your "skill position" players are. If you can't control the Line of Scrimmage, then you can't control the movement of the ball. Think about it: What is the most important player-to-player ball transfer in a football play? QB to RB? Nope. QB to WR? No way. C to QB? Now you got it.

Our offensive line play last year was, to be frank, absolutely horrible. Vernon Carey and Samson Satele had great seasons, but two guys can't control 4 when the other 3 aren't playing up to par. Before drafting Jake, our depth at offensive line was so short, that we didn't technically even have the RT spot filled.

Why I Love the Pick: The free-agency addition of Justin Smiley and Jake Long as our draft pick will create a solid, young line. Carey at RT, Smiley at RG, Satele at C, Mormino at LG and Long at LT. Mormino isn't great, but has a lot of upside. Putting him in between two great young players like Satele and Long will take a lot of pressure off of him and allow him to grow into a decent player himself. The Dolphins also have a young QB in John Beck that will benefit greatly from the added protection, and a strong backfield that will run behind a road-grader like Jake Long all day long (pun intended). Ronnie Brown was leading the NFL in rushing before he was hurt. Now imagine the same but with a much better offensive line.

So basically, adding a guy like Jake Long not only brings his own personal set of skills to the team, but also allows the players around him to play up to, or above, their potentials as well.

Countdown to NFL Draft: 1 Day

Believe it or not, the NFL Draft is just one day away. Months of suspense, permeated by year-long NFL media coverage, will finally come to a close. Is it as J.A. Adande candidly remarked, "Just a bunch of guys putting on hats," or one of the greatest days in sports? There are certain to be some in each camp, but the historically high ratings give ESPN enough reason to slam the issue down our throats.

As for our coverage, we'll be following right along, providing analysis with each Dolphins pick. For those who don't know, the first two rounds are on Saturday and rounds 3-7 on Sunday. Here's the Dolphins' draft board for each of those days:

Day 1 (Saturday):
Round 1, #1(1) - Jake Long, OT Michigan
Round 2, #1(32) -
Round 2, #26(57) - (acquired from San Diego for Chris Chambers)

Day 2 (Sunday):
Round 3, #1(64) -
Round 4, #1(100) -
Round 6, #29(195) -
Round 6, #38(204) -
Round 7, #1(208) -
Round 7, #38(245) -

Phinsider opines on what the Dolphins might do in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. They envision the team considering defensive end/outside linebacker, defensive end/defensive tackle, tight end, and wide receiver.

One position Phinsider doesn't discuss is quarterback, which FinsNation thinks is just fine as is. FinsNation makes a strong argument for current project John Beck, while also confessing a liking for Brian Brohm. John Beck is hardly the big man on South Beach these days, but he deserves a little more time. Even so, I admit to harboring a secret desire for Brian Brohm as well. He may lack the arm strength, but his well-chronicled accuracy and terrific in-game instincts should make for a splendid NFL quarterback.

Lastly, one aspect of the draft that shouldn't be ignored is Bill Parcells' obsession with character. We all know how poorly the Parcells-Terrell Owens experiment turned out in Dallas. With Parcells now on the Dolphins, the Cowboys seem to be acquiring as many troubled players as possible, such as suspended cornerback Pacman Jones. As Pasik seems to illustrate, this never would have happened under Parcells' watch. Look for the Dolphins to avoid those kinds of players like the plague this weekend.

What Will the Dolphins Do Next?

Perception around the league is that the Dolphins did well in choosing Jake Long. Of course, some of this ought to be attributed to a nationwide belief that Bill Parcells knows what he's doing. Sometimes, though, it's not even the player you choose but the professionalism with which you act. Parcells clearly had control over the whole operation, and that alone makes me optimistic.

One last note on Jake Long: Phinsider backs up my claim that Jake was the safer pick, showing that offensive linemen have a 75% success rate compared to 50% from defensive linemen among early draft picks.

In regard to the next pick, FinsNation throws out two names: DE Derrick Harvey (Florida) and DE Quentin Groves (Auburn). Harvey ought to excite a number of people on this blog, as we all remember his heroics in the 2006-07 National Championship game against Ohio State. The only concern is whether Harvey will make it to #32.

If you want some more in-depth analysis, take a look at Phin Fever's comprehensive draft board:

PICK #32
ILB - Connor, Dan Penn State 6/3 231 4.67 Late First
QB - Brohm, Brian Louisville 6/3 230 4.81 Late First
OT - Cherilus, Gosder Boston College 6/7 314 5.14 Late First
QB - Henne, Chad Michigan 6/3 230 4.92 Late First
TE - Keller, Dustin Purdue 6/2 242 4.53 Late First
QB - Flacco, Joe Delaware 6/7 236 4.84 Late First
CB - Cason, Antoine Arizona 6/1 191 4.45 Late First
OLB - Groves, Quentin Auburn 6/3 259 4.53 Early Second
WR - Hardy, *James Indiana 6/6 217 4.45 Early Second
DE - Campbell, *Calais Miami 6/8 290 5.04 Early Second
OLB - Avril, Cliff Purdue 6/3 253 4.51 Early Second
OT - Baker, Sam Southern Cal 6/5 309 5.43 Early Second

They go on to analyze the later picks as well. It's definitely worth a look.

Jake Long and Beyond

My favorable opinion of Jake Long has been clear since The South Florida Fan's inception. Could it be that Bill Parcells was persuaded by our unwavering support (I certainly hope not, or the Dolphins are in real trouble...then again, I hope he reads the blog). All joking aside, I love what Parcells did here.

Offensive line is the most underappreciated position in football, and yet it plays such a critical role. Look at the time Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have had the last few years. It's all due to the pass protection of their offensive line. A great line can make an average quarterback and a mediocre running back look extraordinary. Jake Long doesn't just prevent sacks; he pushes the line forward.

Not everyone agrees with my analysis. Our friend Pasik (who always claims to be right) is woefully wrong here. He thinks the AFC East caught a break, his Buffalo Bills in particular. Just wait, I say.

As for what happens now, the Dolphins can go in a number of directions. Do they take a quarterback with the #32 overall pick? Chad Henne, Joe Flacco, and Brian Brohm would be the leading candidates. I'd prefer they address their other needs, such as CB and Defensive Line. I know Rate agrees with me.

The even bigger question, however, surrounds Jason Taylor. As Phinsider reports, the Dolphins are trying desperately to trade their all-pro ballroom-dancing sack machine for a 1st rounder. Why? He's 34, unhappy, and probably at peak value. As a hardcore Taylor fan, I'd like to see him stay, but if the 'Fins can get an early 1st rounder and replace him with a Chris Long type, it would be hard to complain. Don't expect that to happen, though. From what I'm hearing, no team has shown that kind of interest.

With the first pick in the 2008 NFL Draft...

The Miami Dolphins have signed offensive tackle Jake Long to a five year, $57.75 million contract, with $30 million of that guaranteed. Not bad for a kid who hasn't played a down in the NFL yet. Signing Long early will also avoid a holdout the likes of which the Oakland Raiders had last year in signing JaMarcus Russell.

After unsuccessfully trying to trade the top draft pick, the Dolphins went after the guy they had at the top of their draft board. Offensive line is just one of many needs the 'fins have going into the 2008 draft, however, but new coach Tony Sparano was the offensive line coach in Dallas last year, and now has the #1 overall offensive lineman in the draft. It seems as though Miami is going to try to improve the big uglies first, then work on the playmaker positions. Surely, there is no other way to go for the Dolphins. Without an O-line, there is no hope for any kind of offense to perform effectively. I'll be more interested to see where the 'fins go with rounds 2-5, and who may still be available.

Jake Long Signed?

Today, our resident Dolphins expert Rate went out on a limb and said Bill Parcells would do the most surprising thing of all: the unsurprising, namely signing Jake Long before the draft begins.

Well, here's some BREAKING NEWS from our new favorite blog, FinsNation. According to them, it's a done deal. Their source? The fairly reliable FOX Sports, so I'm inclined to think this is a real story. I caution you, however, not to take every report at face value. This story could still have some legs.

Update from Phinsider: It's a done deal! The press conference is scheduled for 1:45PM ET. Welcome aboard Jake!

(We'll have more on this story as the day goes on, including opinion and analysis)

Bill Parcells is Going to Surprise Us All.

By doing absolutely nothing at all.

During the whole pre-draft you've been hearing stuff about Parcells being the "draft-guru" and the "master-of-smokescreens" and everyone seems to think that he always has some devious plan up his sleeve ready to surprise us all.

So wouldn't it be the greatest hoodwink ever if Parcells just... picked a guy, and signed him?

No smokescreens. No trades. No passing on the pick to try to get a better contract (which, by the way, was one of the stupidest ideas I've ever heard, I can't believe it gained any steam). Just pick a guy, choose what you want to sign him at, and hammer out the details with his agent.

It's that easy. No, really, it is.

I want to make it clear that I have no connections with Parcells or Jake Long. These so called "sources close to ________" are usually just random coaches or relatives who only have a vague idea of what's going on anyways. If Jake actually talked about his contract negotiations with anybody who wasn't his agent, Ireland, or Parcells, then his agent, Ireland, and Parcells would all be very, very, very mad at him. Not his parents, not Lloyd Carr, not the neighbor of this third cousin twice removed. Nobody. The fact is, no matter how much people want to put guys like Chris Mortensen, Adam Schefter, or John Clayton up on pedestals, they've all been wrong before, probably more often then they've been right (I have plenty of proof of that if anyone wants to question it).

All of these "sources" and the people who claim to have them is nothing but an elaborate system so people can act like they're important. Do people honestly believe that so many players, agents, and GMs would openly talk with anybody who doesn't need-to-know? Especially once you consider what's at stake. $60 million isn't exactly chump change.

So when talk like this comes out, always take it with a grain of salt. Use your head, think logically. Just because some talking heads say something doesn't mean it's true, no matter how "credible" they want you to believe they are.

Just look at the facts.

FACT - Miami has opened contract negotiations with Jake Long.
FACT - Miami wants to have the deal in place so their investment is in training camp.
FACT - Miami has a major need at Offensive Tackle (along with many other positions....)
(almost) FACT - Miami hasn't opened contract negotiations with anyone else.

We have a pretty good idea that they haven't opened any other negotiations. Of course, for reasons mentioned before, we can't be completely sure, but it's closer to fact then any speculation of smokescreens, rumored trades, or passing on the pick.

Based only on facts, and forgetting the rest of the media fabricated drama, Jake Long is going to be the first pick of the 2008 NFL Draft.

And Bill Parcells is going to surprise the world.

Did I Say Chris Long? I Meant Jake

As Rate astutely pointed out in a comment to my Chris Long piece, I may have jumped the gun a bit. Fortunately for Dolfans, more evidence seems to support that theory.

In Phinsider's latest nugget, the jury seems to go back to Jake Long again. Not only do they suggest that Jake Long is the pick, but that the Dolphins are finalizing contract negotiations. This would be good news if you ask me, but you can never be certain of anything in a process so dominated by smokescreens, hype, and overdramatized speculation.

Perhaps Rate has more of a read on this.

Rate's Mock Draft

01 MIA Jake Long OT Michigan
02 StL Chris Long DE/OLB Virginia
03 ATL Matt Ryan QB Boston College
04 OAK Vernon Gholston DE/OLB Ohio State
05 K_C Branden Albert OG Virginia
06 NYJ Darren McFadden RB Arkansas
07 N_E Keith Rivers OLB Southern Cal
08 BAL Leodis McKelvin CB Troy
09 CIN Sedrick Ellis DT Southern Cal
10 N_O Glenn Dorsey DT Lousiana State
11 BUF DeSean Jackson WR California
12 DEN Ryan Clady OT Boise State
13 CAR Jeff Otah OT Pittsburgh
14 CHI Chris Williams OT Vanderbilt
15 DET Rashard Mendenhall RB Illinois
16 ARI Dominique Rogers-Cromartie CB Tennessee State
17 MIN Derrick Harvey DE Florida
18 HOU Jonathon Stewart RB Oregon
19 PHI Devin Thomas WR Michigan State
20 T_B Aqib Talib CB Kansas
21 WAS Phillip Merling DE Clemson
22 DAL Felix Jones RB Arkansas
23 PIT Malcolm Kelly WR Oklahoma
24 TEN Limas Sweed WR Texas
25 SEA Dustin Keller TE Purdue
26 JAX Calais Campbell DE Miami
27 S_D Gosder Cherilus OT Boston College
28 DAL Mike Jenkins CB South Florida
29 S_F Jerod Mayo ILB Tennessee
30 G_B Brandon Flowers CB Virginia Tech
31 NYG Kenny Phillips FS Miami
32 MIA Antoine Cason CB Arizona

Notes:

-If any deals are made in the top 10, I expect it to be the Pats at #7. I think they'd actually like to move back a few spots and pick up Rogers-Cromartie more.
-I think Sweed to Tennessee is a natural fit with Young.
-I really think that a lot of teams have Ellis ahead of Dorsey on their draft boards, and wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see Ellis go before Dorsey.
-I also think that Buffalo is going to make a bit of a reach for DeSean Jackson because of their success with another Cal player, Marshawn Lynch.

6 Days to Draft Prediction

The Dolphins will make (not pass...confirmed by Jeff Ireland) the #1 overall draft selection in just 6 days. Here's my current prediction:

Jake Long, OT - Michigan

I just have a feeling that's who they'll go with, especially after Jeff Ireland's famous Freudian Slip.

The other possibility is that they trade the pick. The only way that happens is if another team decides it's worth it to deal up for Darren McFadden. Don't rule out the possibility, but it's not looking likely as of today. We'll see what happens.

Our Presence at the Miami Herald Chat

Our array of contributors got in 6 questions at the Miami Herald's Dolphins chat. We'll leave it to you to decide whether they were of appropriate caliber:

Submitted by The South Florida Fa from West Palm Beach, FL
Q: In light of Jeff Ireland's now-famous "Freudian Slip," do you think the Dolphins can spin it to their advantage? You can't create a better smokescreen than that.
Answered 04/18/08 13:01:14 by Greg Cote
A: The Dolphins won't spin it. They'll allow the media to spin it for them. But I have to tell you, it was a pretty obvious mistake.

Submitted by The South Florida Fa from West Palm Beach, FL
Q: Darren McFadden has been practically ruled out by analysts and experts nationwide, yet HE is arguably the best athlete in the draft. I know he doesn't fit their needs, but do you see any chance at all of the Dolphins turning to him at the last second?
Answered 04/18/08 13:06:25 by Greg Cote
A: No. It would be dumb given all the other needs. With Ronnie Brown healthy and the eighth or ninth life of Ricky Williams, there are far greater needs.
(Note: Armando had a different take later, so the question wasn't so dumb: Q: Armando. Money aside, who would you pick for the Dolphins as the number one pick in the upcoming draft? Why?
Answered 04/18/08 14:03:32 by Armando Salguero
A: Darren McFadden. He's the most explosive player at the top of the draft. He runs a 4.3. He dominated in the SEC. And even though there are questions about him, there are questions about all the other guys at the top of the draft also.)

Submitted by The South Florida Fa from West Palm Beach, FL
Q: Thanks for answering our questions! When you look back on the history of defensive linemen in the draft, a lot of early picks haven't turned out well. Courtney Brown comes specifically to mind. I remember Mel Kiper et. al assuring that he'd be a superstar for the Browns. When you look at guys like Orlando Pace, for instance, doesn't Jake Long seem the safer Long?
Answered 04/18/08 13:13:59 by Armando Salguero
A: Well, plenty of high-pick OL busts too (Tony Mandarich), but i agree jake Long probably is the "safest" pick.

Submitted by The South Florida Fa from Ft. Lauderdale, FL
Q: The Rams have speculated that they're prepared for the Dolphins to actually PASS on their pick. Forgetting all the negative PR, etc. and assuming they couldn't trade the pick, wouldn't the move make sense for salary cap reasons? Why not take Chris/Jake Long/Gholston at #3 instead for less money? (This is just a hypothetical)
Answered 04/18/08 13:21:18 by Greg Cote
A: The Dolphins will not pass. I asked Jeff Ireland this specifically on Thursday and he said it would absolutely not happen.

Submitted by The South Florida Fa from Boca Raton, FLQ: We've been leading a very active campaign in Miami to try and help Save the Sonics. We were wondering what your thoughts were on the whole thing, especially as we've been through stadium-relocation nightmares with the Marlins for years?
Answered 04/18/08 13:58:09 by Greg Cote
A: A save the Sonics campaign in Miami is a great idea. Can you start a save the heat-dolphins-marlins-panthers campaign in Seattle?

Submitted by The South Florida Fa from Boca Raton, FL
Q: Thanks for the support, Cote. The only people who can really help Seattle are those from other NBA cities. I've been personally told that if you write anything in their favor, Save Our Sonics will augment you to hero status.
Answered 04/18/08 14:04:08 by Armando Salguero
A: Don't get me wrong. I feel for longtime Sonics fans in that area. But I have enough parochial concerns and interests to limit my inclination to delve into the woes of other markets.

Dolphins Draft News, Bits

We've been very Marlins-centric here at The South Florida Fan as of late. I admit ... we've neglected our most appreciated and historical team: the Dolphins. Why? Let's chalk it up to the Marlins being so damn good.

We'll be providing much more Dolphins coverage as we get closer to the NFL Draft. In addition, we've gained some prime Dolphins contributors, so be ready for lots of great Dolphins content.

The biggest news, of course, centers on how the Dolphins will "spend" the #1 pick. PhinFever put together a great assimilation of mock drafts (74 to be exact). The order?

1. Chris Long (34 times)
2. Jake Long (32 times)
3. Matt Ryan (3 times)
4. Vernon Gholston (2 times)
4. Glenn Dorsey (2 times)
6. Darren McFadden (1 time)

Suffice to say, popular opinion has it between the two Longs. Speaking of Jake Long, I recommend Phinsider's exposee on his abilities. Very informative.

Lastly, let me just throw out the possibility of Darren McFadden being the surprise pick. He's considered the best player in the draft by many, and it just might be the kind of surprise move from Parcells and company. It's not likely (they already have Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams), but I can't shake it entirely.

Dolphins Attempting a Groundbreaking Draft Strategy

The Dolphins' new draft strategy says as much about the new regime as it does about the failures of the rookie system. In no other sport do the rookies get superstar contracts, leaving many teams better off without an early draft pick at all.

As crazy as that sounds, drafting a rookie is basically like signing an expensive free agent without ever seeing him play. The only benefit is you're the only one who can sign him (which hasn't proved as much of a benefit lately).

The Rams have openly admitted that they think the Dolphins might even (gasp) pass on their first overall pick. The even crazier thing? I think they should!

But before heads start rolling, let's remember the one great luxury of being first overall. It's not that you get your pick of the litter, but that you can sign your pick of the litter. The Dolphins can negotiate contracts with the players they're considering and avoid any holdout controversies. This might be appealing enough for a player to take less money too, since he'd be choosing his destination and have the prestige of being the first overall pick.

The Dolphins are smartly testing that theory to its limits. They're currently in contract negotiations with Jake Long, Chris Long, and Vernon Gholston. They may just take the cheapest one...and that would be just fine with me. That or pass. You have to love the audacity of this new management team.

Dolphins going Long?

Several reports are out now saying that Parcells and the Dolphins have been in contact with Michigan offensive tackle Jake Long, and may have even begun contract negotiations.

Now clearly, a 1-15 team will have lots of needs, but I think that the offensive line may be area #1 that needs to be improved. Without a decent O-line, you can't get an offense moving. Assuming Ronnie Brown comes back from his knee surgery, and the 'fins 2 top picks last year don't crap out, man-beast Jake Long would give the big uglies up front some much needed size and strength. The 6'7" 313 lb Wolverine could give 2nd year QB John Beck a few more than the estimated 2.1 seconds he had last year to get rid of the ball.

Who's #1?

Getting the #1 overall draft pick may be the only bright spot from last year's decrepit 1-15 season (that and Greg Camarillo), so naturally there has been a lot of discussion over who the 'Fins should take.

Many believe Parcells has been actively shopping the pick. If he could get a couple later 1st rounders for it, I would do it. Let me point out, fans, that the hidden curse of the #1 overall pick is the money you have to pay your draftee. It's not like the NBA or MLB, where there's a structured system in place to keep rookie contracts down. These first rounders take up valuable cap space, and the teams drafting in the mid-to-late round benefit most (you can still get the top CB or S and pay less for it).

With that being said, let me swing all of my endorsements towards Michigan OL Jake Long. I'm not one to stick up for Michigan these days, but I've become a firm believer that offensive linemen in the draft are the surest things. Taking QB Matt Ryan, for instance, is a huge experiment, whereas Long gives the Dolphins a staple of their offense for years to come.

If you don't believe me, watch what happens to Pittsburgh without Alan Faneca this year (signed with the Jets). Their running game will run into its own steel curtain.

I know Jake Long is not the consensus pick, but in my humble opinion, he's the one to take.