Favre to the Dolphins Update

The Dolphins are still being mentioned in connection with Brett Favre. Here's three reasons to believe it can happen and three reasons not:

Why it Can:

1. The Packers announced today that they would trade Favre only to an AFC team. With the Ravens supposedly balking, the Dolphins become the favorites among AFC teams.

2. We all know Bill Parcells respects old quarterbacks. Remember how long he held Tony Romo out for Drew Bledsoe?

3. The Dolphins REALLY NEED A QB if they're going to contend at all. Acquire Favre and the franchise is going for it all now.

Why it Won't:

1. If Favre is saying he won't play in Tampa because "it's too hot," that's not a great sign for Miami either.

2. Does Brett Favre really believe this Miami team, 1-15 just one year ago, has been revamped enough to win right now?

3. The longer this situations plays out, the more likely it is that Favre and the Packers settle their differences and unite again.

Probabilities:
Stays retired: 25%
Plays for Packers: 40%
Plays for Dolphins: 7.5%
Plays for Another Team: 27.5%

The Old Hearing Aid Excuse

In today's Sun-Sentinel we find out that the current rift of many rifts between Duane Charles and Jason Taylor wasn't a rift at all. The problem? He didn't hear him.

No, seriously.

However, last Saturday, Taylor admitted that the widely circulated reports were accurate and that he did feel snubbed by Parcells when he made a brief appearance during a film session at team headquarters last month while on a break from his stint on ABC's Dancing With the Stars. Taylor added that their encounter was not "confrontational."

"I was in the room there with a lot of people," Parcells said. "I have hearing aids. I didn't have them with me that day. I didn't see anybody walk into the room directly.

The quick and interesting read drops some more Parcells nuggets:

On running back Ricky Williams: "I've always had a high regard for the player. ... We're hoping he could recapture some of what he had because what he had was pretty special, so I'm rooting for him."

Aren't we all...

On Patriots coach Bill Belichick's Spygate episode: "I think it was overblown. If the competition is victimized by someone spying on you — if that happened — it's your fault because you could take precautions to keep that from happening if you're smart enough."

Appeasing the AFC East gatekeepers. Laud them with praise, then attack the champs. Interesting approach.

Insert pre-requisite Dancing With The Stars clip:

Dolphins News...Including JT

Contrary to popular belief, the Dolphins do have a team outside of Jason Taylor. In fact, Jason Taylor may or may not be on the team, so it's questionable whether he even counts. Before we get to the real team, however, let me share a quick bit on JT.

Bill Parcells may have a problem with Taylor, but coach Tony Sparano is adopting a much more civil approach. As FinsNation reports, Sparano seems - at least publicly - to want Jason Taylor on his squad. Not a bad idea, considering the guy's a Defensive MVP, Dolphins legend, and decent guy (yes, he is)! Major kudos to you, Tony Sparano, for actually saying the right thing.

Now as for other news, things are looking very promising for John Beck. Both FinsNation and Phinsider reported on this story...perhaps John Beck could be the answer at quarterback? If so, that would be far more integral to the Dolphins' success this year than a certain Dancing With the Stars contestant.

Josh McCown is also rumored to have played well, which is certainly a noteworthy story, but not something to get excited about. Beck is the one with a real future. I hope we never see McCown in a game unless it's garbage time.

A Little More JT

Just a little more to report for you. Sorry for those of you who have grown disenamored with this story...it's what's making headlines around the South Florida blogosphere, so I feel compelled to report it.

As you know, I've been adamant in my support of Jason Taylor over Bill Parcells. I want to share an additional opinion that I posted on Phinsider:

"What amazes me, though, is how you can just ignore the track records of the parties involved. Let’s see:

1. Jason Taylor – Always great teammate, always prepared for season, stayed loyal to a horrid team through coaching changes, poor personnel moves, and media scrutiny.

2. Bill Parcells – Reputed jerk, gets into squabbles with teammates and media constantly, doesn’t dignify people by saying their names (which is so unbelievably rude, by the way), known dictator, no-nonsense yet pervades nonsense. Bailed on teams EVERY SINGLE TIME, plays teams against each other to make more money.

Think about that before you start making assumptions. All Jason Taylor did was follow a great opportunity. The rest is Parcells being a prick."

Anyway, now that I've gotten in my two cents about fifty times, let me share a couple good JT links:

FinsNation shows that Jason Taylor has support from fellow players. As for how the situation will play out from here, Matty of Phinsider puts together an elaborate post here. There a lots of possibilities, but I still hope and maintain that we'll see Taylor in a Dolphins uniform next year.

Blogosphere Divide: JT 2, Parcells 2

As many of you know, we often refer to FinsNation, Phinsider, and PhinFever for Dolphins commentary. All have been loyal - if not perturbed - providers on the Jason Taylor-Bill Parcells feud.

Well today, it seems the battle lines have been drawn, with two on each side. Not since the fabled clash of D'Artagnan & Porthos vs. Athos & Aramis in Dumas' Twenty Years After has such division fermented among allies. Alas, such is the way of things.

Let's start with the Parcellsists. Phinsider comes out strongly against Jason Taylor. His words:

"To be honest, though, this whole entire situation just sickens me. It really does. And what I'm hoping for is for Taylor to be traded...and traded soon."

PhinFever joins in dissent:

"All of his actions, in this blogger’s opinion, have been detrimental to the team. His initial decision to be on Dancing with the Stars has caused this media maelstrom. Him missing mandatory mini-camps and eventually training camp will only add to the frenzy. The rumors that he wants to be traded, and yes he does, along with the idea that Hollywood is waiting for him, have all caused distractions for what the new front office wants to do."

And now to the Taylorists, myself included. FinsNation shows a bit of bravery as he makes his case, despite its apparent unpopularity. I give you one of the non-vulgar quotes (there are few):

"Point is: I side with JT. He's done nothing wrong. Parcells could and should have defused the situation from the beginning and handled it quietly and responsibly. Now, I understand that most of you disagree with my stance. That's cool. Disagreements are a part of what makes sports fun, and debates are a healthy way to hash out differences of opinion."

Well FinsNation, you have some company here at The South Florida Fan. What does Jason Taylor owe this franchise; the same franchise that treated him like garbage this entire offseason; the same franchise that gave him horrible coaches and horrendous draft picks for teammates; the same franchise that leaves him at the twilight of his career with nothing close to a ring. My god, what a terrible person!

How dare he want to play for a winning team??? How dare he seize an elusive opportunity to boost a post-NFL career by going on Dancing With the Stars and milking it for all its worth? All this, while Bill Parcells acted like a total jackass. JT, you have our full support. Now come back and play for us!

Cote's Rendition of 'The 4 Questions'

Greg Cote hosted his usual Monday chat, albeit on Tuesday (postponed a day for Memorial Day). As always, he was gracious with our questions. There's no better source on the state of Miami sports, so he's a great person to ask. Today's questions:

1. Q: Have your media counterparts in other cities started to take more notice of the Marlins? Are they finally getting some respect?

A: Yes, gradually, by degrees. Heard Boog Schiambi on the broadcast just yesterday touting Dan Uggla as an NL MVP candidate at this point. Acceptance coming hard, though. Lots of national folk still expect the starting pitching to wither.

Boog Schiambi isn't really an encouraging source, considering his previous history with the Marlins. A strong road trip against NL East rivals would make an impression, I'm sure.

2. Q: Are the Marlins Willie Randolph's worst nightmare? First they knock the Mets out of the playoffs last year, now they could knock him out of his job.

A: Yeah the "Fire Willie" signs have begun to sprout at Shea. Should his supporters counter with "Free Willie" signs?

As stated earlier, I think Randolph is getting too much of the blame. Then again, a new voice might be essential now.

3. Q: Do you see Elton Brand as a member of the 2008-09 Heat? What about Ron Artest?

A: I know Pat Riley has liked Elton Brand's game for years. Ron Artest would be a great signing despite the baggage.

Cote and I wholeheartedly agree. I'd love to see these guys in a Heat uniform next year.

4. Q: Would you rather be stuck on a deserted island with Jason Taylor or Bill Parcells?

A: Oddly enough, probably Parcells. Because I'd rather talk football than dancing. (Time for one more question. Who wins the nonexistent prize!?)

I completely disagree here. First of all, I'd imagine Bill Parcells would eat the bulk of the available food resources. He'd also be pretty useless in terms of hunting and fishing. His grumpy demeanor couldn't be too good for morale either.

And hey...Jason Taylor could teach me how to dance!

Prediction: Jason Taylor Stays

These superstar-management tiffs have a way of working out, especially when there are significant obstacles in the way of a trade. Here are two examples:

1. Kobe Bryant and the Lakers - He demanded a trade all summer, but his no-trade clause and incomparable value forced both sides to coexist.

2. Manny Ramirez and the Red Sox - Manny demands a trade every year, and the Red Sox find a way to placate him by pretending to look around. Never happens, obviously.

Trades are difficult to pull off in the NFL. There are salary cap problems on both sides, the Draft already happened, and JT isn't enhancing his value by plugging his acting career.

Phinsider tells us the rumored teams thus far: San Diego and Washington. Neither seem particularly interested beyond a low-level draft pick.

In my view, the Dolphins and Jason Taylor will reconcile their differences and play out a juicy soap opera. When will Bill Parcells learn that his antagonistic style only exacerbates the situation? He should just shut up and say, "Jason will be on the team come August." Period.

Jason Taylor Has Quite a Life

We've had a number of debates at The South Florida Fan about the Jason Taylor-Bill Parcells feud. I've come out on Jason Taylor's side, while Stanley C. and company have taken the opposing stance/straddled the fence.

For those still interested, I strongly encourage you to peruse Dan le Batard's piece on Jason Taylor's rise to stardom. A little passage:

"The other day, Taylor rushed late to a lunch with Denzel Washington. Taylor's Dancing With the Stars partner kept texting him during that two-hour meal to remind Taylor he was late for rehearsal. So Taylor told Washington that, sorry, he couldn't go over to a nearby hotel to meet a waiting friend of Washington's who also wanted an audience with Taylor. That friend was Al Pacino."

Let's just say Bill Parcells isn't too high on Taylor's list of priorities, and why should he be? Right now, Taylor can dance pirouettes around him.

Jason Taylor Needs to Wake Up

Jason Taylor needs to wake up. As earlier posted on TSFFB here , there is an apparent feud brewing between JT and Bill Parcells. The Tuna is upset over Jason Taylor missing out on the voluntary offseason workouts that are going on.

Let's look at things from Bill's side. You are Bill Parcells. Your team had the worst record in the NFL last season. You are the new "executive vice-president of football operations" of said team. You have a new coach, Tony Sparano, who has never been a head coach before at this level. Sparano was hired because of his widely recognized ability to get along with players and develop young talent. You don't have to be the players' friend, because you aren't their coach. You aren't their sitter. You are there to build a team up from the bottom of the NFL barrel. You have been shopping your aging captain, Jason Taylor, hoping to get more young talent in return. Unfortunately, you received little to no attention from other teams. Then, said captain leaves your young team for a reality dancing show on network TV during an offseason that his leadership is needed more than ever before. There are no other leaders, no other faces to look up to. One day, said captain "pops in" for a visit to say hi to teammates, and decides to come in to your office while you are studying tape. Would you welcome him with open arms?

Now clearly, from a human relations standpoint, Bill Parcells has a lot to learn. Could he have handled it better? Of course. But does he have a right to be peeved? I certainly think so. Emmit Smith and Jerry Rice had great careers on "Dancing With the Stars," but they were retired. Jason Taylor is the face of the Dolphins, the leader of a 1-15 team trying to take a good draft class and prepare them for a long season. He can't dance around his responsibilities.

Bill Parcells Needs to Grow Up

Those who have faithfully read our blog would know we've been highly supportive of Bill Parcells, especially in regard to the draft. He's a veritable sage when it comes to evaluating personnel, and his steady hand is just what the Dolphins need to right their ship (which had fallen somewhere near the place Captain Jack Sparrow found himself in the third Pirates of the Caribbean movie).

With those praises out of the way, it's time for a little criticism. What was it that made Parcells ineffective as coach of the Cowboys? His people skills, namely when applied to outspoken superstars like "the player" (that's T.O. if you didn't recall).

The childlike antics seem to have surfaced again, this time with Jason Taylor. There's no excuse for this:

"Two weeks ago, Taylor took a break from his dancing gig and visited the Dolphins. He visited with teammates in the locker room and, after a warm reception, decided to call on Parcells.
Taylor walked into a room where Parcells was watching tape, and Parcells ignored him. He looked at Taylor and went back to his work without saying a word.
That incensed Taylor."

In cases like these, Bill Parcells needs to rediscover that thing called puberty, which supposedly raises the mind to a more adult form.

Post-Draft Thoughts Around the Blogosphere

The general feeling, at least locally, is that the Dolphins rocked the draft. Perhaps it's a bit of hometown optimism, but I think we can safely assume that wasn't the case last year (nobody thought Cam Cameron deserved anything above an F). Maybe it's more polarization than homerism that occurs. Regardless, here's a quick summary of what's being said.

FinsNation was so pleased with the draft, they likened Parcells' performance to a comic book character. Phinsider seems pleased enough that Parcells and Ireland have a plan for this team. Phin Fever gives a breakdown of each draft pick. Here's the full draft board if you missed any picks.

We at The South Florida Fan are also pleased with the draft, with the lone exception of Lorenzo Booker being traded and Jalen Parmele/Lex Hilliard replacing him. I have my doubts on Chad Henne, but it was a very solid pick for the end of the 2nd round. We want to thank everyone who followed along with us. Congratulations also to FinsNation, Phinsider, and Phin Fever, for providing such excellent coverage throughout the weekend.

Dolphins Add Another Trench Warrior

I mentioned a few minutes ago how Bill Parcells was trying to build the offensive and defensive lines. With the Dolphins' 4th round selection, I was proven right again.

The 'Fins grabbed OG Shawn Murphy out of Utah State. His strengths are in his quickness and agility, which don't normally fit the Bill Parcells mold (Parcells is known for treasuring strength and size). That being said, Parcells must have seen a lot of potential in Murphy, enough to pull the trigger here.

Murphy should be a nice complement to Jake Long along the refurbished offensive line. Once again, Parcells gets a positive grade.

Dolphins Trade 4th Rounder to Dallas

The only question remaining about the Dolphins and Cowboys ongoing relationship is which airline they're flying: American or Southwest? Both have pretty decent Dallas-Miami transit (I'd bet on Southwest...these trades seem boarded like cattle calls). Just to remind you, Bill Parcells, head coach Tony Sparano, and Jeff Ireland all came from Dallas while Zach Thomas went to the Cowboys, and those are just the stars.

The deal sends linebacker Akin Ayodele and tight end Anthony Fasano to Miami for a 4th round pick. Want to know more about these players? Phin Fever breaks it down as well as can be done. The comments at FinsNation seem pretty supportive too. And at Phinsider? Matty likes the deal so much, he thought he was being pranked when texted about it.

My thoughts? I absolutely love this trade. Right now, the Dolphins need serviceable players, and Parcells landed two for one. It's the best value he could possibly get for a 4th round pick, and it stands as yet another glowing moment in the Bill Parcells' Miami Dolphins legacy.

Countdown to NFL Draft: 1 Day

Believe it or not, the NFL Draft is just one day away. Months of suspense, permeated by year-long NFL media coverage, will finally come to a close. Is it as J.A. Adande candidly remarked, "Just a bunch of guys putting on hats," or one of the greatest days in sports? There are certain to be some in each camp, but the historically high ratings give ESPN enough reason to slam the issue down our throats.

As for our coverage, we'll be following right along, providing analysis with each Dolphins pick. For those who don't know, the first two rounds are on Saturday and rounds 3-7 on Sunday. Here's the Dolphins' draft board for each of those days:

Day 1 (Saturday):
Round 1, #1(1) - Jake Long, OT Michigan
Round 2, #1(32) -
Round 2, #26(57) - (acquired from San Diego for Chris Chambers)

Day 2 (Sunday):
Round 3, #1(64) -
Round 4, #1(100) -
Round 6, #29(195) -
Round 6, #38(204) -
Round 7, #1(208) -
Round 7, #38(245) -

Phinsider opines on what the Dolphins might do in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. They envision the team considering defensive end/outside linebacker, defensive end/defensive tackle, tight end, and wide receiver.

One position Phinsider doesn't discuss is quarterback, which FinsNation thinks is just fine as is. FinsNation makes a strong argument for current project John Beck, while also confessing a liking for Brian Brohm. John Beck is hardly the big man on South Beach these days, but he deserves a little more time. Even so, I admit to harboring a secret desire for Brian Brohm as well. He may lack the arm strength, but his well-chronicled accuracy and terrific in-game instincts should make for a splendid NFL quarterback.

Lastly, one aspect of the draft that shouldn't be ignored is Bill Parcells' obsession with character. We all know how poorly the Parcells-Terrell Owens experiment turned out in Dallas. With Parcells now on the Dolphins, the Cowboys seem to be acquiring as many troubled players as possible, such as suspended cornerback Pacman Jones. As Pasik seems to illustrate, this never would have happened under Parcells' watch. Look for the Dolphins to avoid those kinds of players like the plague this weekend.

What Will the Dolphins Do Next?

Perception around the league is that the Dolphins did well in choosing Jake Long. Of course, some of this ought to be attributed to a nationwide belief that Bill Parcells knows what he's doing. Sometimes, though, it's not even the player you choose but the professionalism with which you act. Parcells clearly had control over the whole operation, and that alone makes me optimistic.

One last note on Jake Long: Phinsider backs up my claim that Jake was the safer pick, showing that offensive linemen have a 75% success rate compared to 50% from defensive linemen among early draft picks.

In regard to the next pick, FinsNation throws out two names: DE Derrick Harvey (Florida) and DE Quentin Groves (Auburn). Harvey ought to excite a number of people on this blog, as we all remember his heroics in the 2006-07 National Championship game against Ohio State. The only concern is whether Harvey will make it to #32.

If you want some more in-depth analysis, take a look at Phin Fever's comprehensive draft board:

PICK #32
ILB - Connor, Dan Penn State 6/3 231 4.67 Late First
QB - Brohm, Brian Louisville 6/3 230 4.81 Late First
OT - Cherilus, Gosder Boston College 6/7 314 5.14 Late First
QB - Henne, Chad Michigan 6/3 230 4.92 Late First
TE - Keller, Dustin Purdue 6/2 242 4.53 Late First
QB - Flacco, Joe Delaware 6/7 236 4.84 Late First
CB - Cason, Antoine Arizona 6/1 191 4.45 Late First
OLB - Groves, Quentin Auburn 6/3 259 4.53 Early Second
WR - Hardy, *James Indiana 6/6 217 4.45 Early Second
DE - Campbell, *Calais Miami 6/8 290 5.04 Early Second
OLB - Avril, Cliff Purdue 6/3 253 4.51 Early Second
OT - Baker, Sam Southern Cal 6/5 309 5.43 Early Second

They go on to analyze the later picks as well. It's definitely worth a look.

Bill Parcells is Going to Surprise Us All.

By doing absolutely nothing at all.

During the whole pre-draft you've been hearing stuff about Parcells being the "draft-guru" and the "master-of-smokescreens" and everyone seems to think that he always has some devious plan up his sleeve ready to surprise us all.

So wouldn't it be the greatest hoodwink ever if Parcells just... picked a guy, and signed him?

No smokescreens. No trades. No passing on the pick to try to get a better contract (which, by the way, was one of the stupidest ideas I've ever heard, I can't believe it gained any steam). Just pick a guy, choose what you want to sign him at, and hammer out the details with his agent.

It's that easy. No, really, it is.

I want to make it clear that I have no connections with Parcells or Jake Long. These so called "sources close to ________" are usually just random coaches or relatives who only have a vague idea of what's going on anyways. If Jake actually talked about his contract negotiations with anybody who wasn't his agent, Ireland, or Parcells, then his agent, Ireland, and Parcells would all be very, very, very mad at him. Not his parents, not Lloyd Carr, not the neighbor of this third cousin twice removed. Nobody. The fact is, no matter how much people want to put guys like Chris Mortensen, Adam Schefter, or John Clayton up on pedestals, they've all been wrong before, probably more often then they've been right (I have plenty of proof of that if anyone wants to question it).

All of these "sources" and the people who claim to have them is nothing but an elaborate system so people can act like they're important. Do people honestly believe that so many players, agents, and GMs would openly talk with anybody who doesn't need-to-know? Especially once you consider what's at stake. $60 million isn't exactly chump change.

So when talk like this comes out, always take it with a grain of salt. Use your head, think logically. Just because some talking heads say something doesn't mean it's true, no matter how "credible" they want you to believe they are.

Just look at the facts.

FACT - Miami has opened contract negotiations with Jake Long.
FACT - Miami wants to have the deal in place so their investment is in training camp.
FACT - Miami has a major need at Offensive Tackle (along with many other positions....)
(almost) FACT - Miami hasn't opened contract negotiations with anyone else.

We have a pretty good idea that they haven't opened any other negotiations. Of course, for reasons mentioned before, we can't be completely sure, but it's closer to fact then any speculation of smokescreens, rumored trades, or passing on the pick.

Based only on facts, and forgetting the rest of the media fabricated drama, Jake Long is going to be the first pick of the 2008 NFL Draft.

And Bill Parcells is going to surprise the world.

Jeff Ireland's slip, and what it means.

Every other media outlet is talking about it, so I want to clear something up here.

It doesn't mean anything.

For one, all of us make simple slips in conversation all of the time. Speaking in front of a large press crowd with the most intimidating boss in the NFL aka Bill Parcells staring at you the entire time is about as stressful as it gets, so you can't really blame the guy.

Sure, you can speculate. Maybe it was a Freudian slip. Maybe he actually meant to say "offense." Maybe he meant to say "team." Maybe it's an elaborate Parcells smokescreen.

Maybe it's being completely overblown by a media that's desperate for NFL content.

The fact is, nobody knows anything more about the Dolphins draft plans then they did before the conference. Anything people say at this point is pure speculation.

Besides, the first pick is not what is going to determine the future of the Miami Dolphins. Nearly everyone agrees that Jake Long, Chris Long, or Vernon Gholston are can't miss talents. I really can't see any of them being major busts. They would all also fill a position of need. So the first pick, quite frankly, doesn't mean nearly as much as what people are making it out to be just because of the prestige that goes along with being the first pick of the draft.

What is really going to make or break the Dolphins is how well our talent evaluation works in the middle rounds of the draft. Even if we nailed a first year Pro Bowler with the first pick, if all of the other picks were busts or development squad players, the Dolphins would still be looking at another 1 to 3 win season. However, if the first pick ends up being only an average starter, but we can get 2 to 4 more solid starters in the 2nd to 5th rounds to fill all of our positions of need, the Dolphins could be back to playoff contention within 2 or 3 years.

Of course you hope you can get lucky and land your Tom Brady in the 6th, but the entire point of the draft is to build depth and youth on your team, and if you don't consistently bring in 5 to 6 young players every year that remain in the league with your team, then you end up in exactly the position the Dolphins are in now.